ConocoPhillips stock price forecast: $103.06 support in focus as COP falls 3.01%

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ConocoPhillips drops 3.01% to $106.67

Highlights

ConocoPhillips expands upstream exposure by signing a deal with Syrian Petroleum Company to restart Syria's gas production.
Company advances major LNG projects and benefits from improved operational flexibility as regional supply constraints ease.
COP trades under sustained bearish momentum, with price expected between $103.06 and $108.26 and risk skewed to further downside.

Upstream expansion and LNG growth offset by ongoing selling pressure

ConocoPhillips has signed a contract with the Syrian Petroleum Company to revive Syria's gas production, increasing its access to upstream assets and enabling greater production capacity. The company is also expanding its LNG portfolio by advancing major liquefaction projects, supporting future export diversification and enhancing its ability to meet global demand. According to Simplywall, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under a U.S.-Iran agreement has shifted oil supply dynamics, allowing ConocoPhillips operational flexibility as it increases exposure to Syrian energy assets and pursues long-term LNG contracts, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals reinforce downside momentum despite long-term support holding

On the hourly chart, COP is trading below its MA-20 at $109.03 and MA-50 at $110.97, while price remains above the long-term MA-200 at $105.27. Immediate resistance is found at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $109.14. Momentum indicators confirm selling pressure: the MACD and ADX are both signaling a Sell bias, RSI is at 29.26, and both Stoch RSI and CCI readings are in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) is also oversold, highlighting persistent seller dominance intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. The absence of major divergences reflects continued alignment of momentum and price action to the downside.

Consolidation favored as breakout or breakdown risks remain elevated

Over the short term, COP is expected to trade within a volatility band of $103.06 to $108.26. The most probable scenario is consolidation within this range. A bullish breakout above the $109.14 resistance level could trigger a recovery path, while a bearish breach below $103.06 would open further downside potential.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees ConocoPhillips' move to secure Syrian gas assets and push major LNG projects as strategic steps for long-term growth. He notes that macro factors like renewed access through the Strait of Hormuz improve the company’s global supply flexibility and export prospects. However, in the short term, price is still under pressure and may consolidate before a clear directional move. "COP's fundamental story is strengthening, and if price holds above $103.06, I expect investor optimism to return on positive macro and sector momentum."

Earlier, analysts noted that ConocoPhillips was contending with sustained bearish momentum and limited prospects for a decisive near-term rebound. With recent developments expanding ConocoPhillips' upstream presence and LNG portfolio, while downside dominates intraday momentum, traders should closely monitor the $109.14 resistance and $103.06 support as the next catalysts for a shift in directional bias.

Source of Data: COP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.