SpaceX shares swing sharply after IPO as retail hype meets valuation concerns

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
SpaceX shares swing after IPO

Highlights

SpaceX shares surged over 60% from the $135 IPO price before dropping 5%, 4%, and 16%, highlighting extreme volatility driven by retail enthusiasm.
Retail investors bought a net $405 million of SpaceX shares in the first five sessions, marking the strongest retail IPO debut on record, according to Vanda.
SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and $4.28 billion lost in Q1, with analysts citing an overvalued stock versus its nearly $3 trillion valuation and high capital needs.

Trading debut shaped by hype and momentum

As reported by CNBC, SpaceX rose more than 60% from its $135 initial share offering price in the days after its record-breaking IPO, before a series of declines of 5%, 4%, and then 16% highlighted the stock's volatility. The shares later settle into smaller daily moves, but the opening stretch reinforces how strongly sentiment is driving trading.

Analysts say the stock is behaving less like a conventional earnings-based investment and more like a bet on long-term expectations tied to Elon Musk's broader vision. Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, says Musk-linked companies do not trade in line with typical valuation comparisons, adding that investor interest is centered more on themes such as Mars exploration and space-based data centers than on current financial performance.

Retail investors are adding to that momentum. Research firm Vanda says retail buyers purchased a net $405 million of SpaceX shares in the first five trading sessions, making it the strongest retail IPO debut in recent history, while strategists point to the combination of a celebrity founder, transformational technology narrative, and intense media attention as key drivers of the stock's early swings.

Losses, growth targets and market risks

As the initial enthusiasm fades, analysts say fundamentals are becoming a bigger influence on the share price. Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, describes that shift as a hangover after the first bullish days in public trading.

Musk says on June 14 that SpaceX might be able to reach about $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a sharp increase from the $18.7 billion the company reports for 2025. SpaceX posts a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and loses $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year, underscoring the gap between its current financial position and its long-term ambitions.

Morningstar Wealth chief investment officer for EMEA Mike Coop says the company faces two major challenges in public markets: more shares becoming available as early investors reduce holdings, and a stock price that he sees as too high given uncertainty around the business outlook and its need for large capital investment. Even so, short sellers remain cautious, with investor Michael Burry saying on June 16 that he holds no position in SpaceX because options used to bet against the stock remain too expensive despite his concerns about its nearly $3 trillion valuation.

Our earlier coverage of SpaceX’s addition to the Russell U.S. indexes explained how FTSE Russell’s reconstitution can trigger forced buying by passive funds, potentially amplifying volatility in the stock shortly after its IPO. We also highlighted the ongoing valuation debate given limited free float, large recent losses, and the prospect of further index inclusions such as the Nasdaq 100, even as the company remains ineligible for the S&P 500 due to profitability rules.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.