Nvidia stock trades flat after Blackwell GPU bans increase revenue risk

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Nvidia drops 0.5% on export concerns

Highlights

Nvidia signaled it will prioritize U.S. national security over commercial interests if export restrictions to China intensify, raising regulatory and geopolitical risks.
Recent bans have sharply increased Blackwell GPU prices in China, constraining supply and threatening short-term revenue growth from a major market.
Nvidia trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages amid prevailing bearish momentum, with an expected range of $183.5 to $205.36 and high downside probability.

Export ban compliance as US-China tensions drive supply risks

At Nvidia’s June 25, 2026 shareholder meeting, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the company would prioritize U.S. national security over commercial opportunities should any conflict arise from ongoing export restrictions on advanced chips to China, according to Thestreet. This stance addresses growing regulatory pressure and signals continued compliance with tightened controls, potentially affecting Nvidia’s future access to a key market. On the same day, Blackwell GPU prices in China surged following new bans, as reported by Gurufocus and Seekingalpha, highlighting how these regulations are constraining supply and may limit near-term revenue growth for the company.

Oversold momentum as NVDA holds above long-term support

NVDA traded below the moving average-20 and moving average-50 on the working timeframe, but above the moving average-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $203.06 provided immediate resistance. Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull/Bear Power remained in oversold or sell territory, indicating prevailing seller dominance with signs of possible exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator showed a sell bias, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) was neutral, aligning with subdued market momentum.

Downside risk elevated as rebound prospects diminish

Over the next two to three trading days, the expected volatility band is $183.5 to $205.36. The probability of an upward move is low, while odds of a downward move are high, and a rebound is considered unlikely. The baseline scenario anticipates price stabilization within this range. A push above resistance at $203.06 would open a bullish scenario, whereas a break below support near $183.5 could trigger further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees limited momentum and a cautious sentiment for Nvidia as export control risks overhang the outlook. He notes that CEO Jensen Huang’s focus on U.S. national security signals ongoing regulatory headwinds and pressure on China sales. Technical signals remain negative, with price below short-term averages and sellers still dominant. "Until NVDA reclaims $203.06, my outlook stays defensive and I expect price stabilization within the $183.5 to $205.36 band."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s stock was encountering persistent technical resistance and consolidating within a defined range, reflecting underlying market caution despite its ongoing leadership in AI innovation. The current outlook reinforces this sideline stance amid heightened regulatory risks, with traders advised to monitor the $203.06 resistance and $183.5 support levels as potential triggers for the next significant price move.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.