Deribit acquisition lifts Coinbase stock by 3.63% during global expansion push

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Coinbase gains 3.63% today to $147.88

Highlights

Coinbase established Luxembourg as its main EU hub under MiCA, enabling crypto services across all 27 EU member states.
The $4.3 billion Deribit acquisition diversifies Coinbase's product portfolio and boosts its derivatives market presence.
COIN/USD faces broad technical selling pressure, with a bearish bias and a 64% probability of testing the $132.24–$163.52 range lows.

Growth prospects rise as EU regulatory approval and acquisitions advance

Coinbase has officially designated Luxembourg as its primary European hub under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, a regulatory achievement that allows the platform to offer crypto services to all 27 EU member states and broadens its regional customer reach, as reported by Cryptonews. This milestone enhances Coinbase's ability to capture new demand in the expanding European market, underpinning its long-term growth prospects. Additionally, the recently completed $4.3 billion acquisition of Deribit, paid with $700 million in cash and the remainder in equity according to Moneycheck, diversifies its product suite and strengthens its positioning in the derivatives segment. Ongoing merger and acquisition plans further reflect management’s intent to scale operationally as the regulatory landscape evolves.

Bearish momentum persists as major resistances curb recovery

From a technical analysis perspective, COIN is trading below the MA-20 at $149.94, MA-50 at $159.72, and MA-200 at $235.15, confirming persistent seller control across short, medium, and long-term moving averages. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $153.21 acts as immediate overhead resistance. Momentum indicators remain negative, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signaling Strong Sell and the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicating a continuation of the sell trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.53, suggesting a mild bearish bias, while both the Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions in the short term despite the broader downtrend. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Awesome Oscillator are currently neutral, contributing to a mixed technical profile. These readings collectively reveal a divergence between intraday upward moves and prevailing bearish momentum.

Sideways price action likely amid mixed technical signals

In the short term, COIN is expected to consolidate within the $132.24 to $163.52 volatility band, reflecting mixed technical signals and heightened intraday swings. Upside movement carries a 36% probability, with gains likely capped near the $153.21 resistance; a breakout above this level could open the way to the upper end of the forecasted range. Conversely, should the current recovery stall and sellers regain control, the next move could target the $132.24 support zone at the lower bound. Most scenarios point to continued sideways price action as the dominant theme in the coming sessions.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Coinbase’s regulatory breakthrough in Luxembourg as an important long-term positive for its European footprint. He remains cautious, pointing to ongoing seller control and mixed technical signals — with COIN still below all key moving averages and momentum bias tilted bearish. Most scenarios point to extended consolidation unless $153.21 is convincingly cleared. "Until COIN breaks above key resistance, my base case is for sideways action and restricted upside in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that Coinbase was experiencing persistent technical weakness despite significant regulatory and expansion milestones. The current analysis reinforces this bearish outlook, highlighting that any decisive move above the $153.21 resistance could be pivotal for reversing short-term seller control.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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