Intel shares attempt to recover before quarterly results
Intel stock is attempting to recover after a 37% decline over the past month ahead of the company's July 23 quarterly earnings report.
Investor attention is now fully focused on Intel's earnings release, scheduled for after the market closes on July 23. Revenue is expected to reach approximately $14.4 billion, representing year-over-year growth of about 12%. Adjusted earnings are forecast at $0.22 per share.
Investors will closely watch demand for server processors, progress on the Intel 18A process technology, manufacturing profitability, and new Intel Foundry customers. Management's guidance and comments on capital expenditures will also be key areas of focus.
Another important factor is the overall sentiment across the semiconductor sector. Chip stocks rebounded on July 20 following a sharp sell-off the previous week, but the sustainability of that recovery will largely depend on Intel's results and earnings from other technology companies.
Breakout above $102 could open the path to $110
As highlighted in the previous analysis, a break below the $102 support level increased the risk of further downside in Intel stock. That scenario has since played out.
The stock's decline of roughly 37% over the past month points to deeply oversold conditions and increases the probability of a continued technical rebound.
The key level to watch remains $102. If the regular trading session opens above this level and buyers manage to hold it, bullish momentum would strengthen, increasing the probability of a move toward the $110 resistance area.
If the stock remains below $102, the probability of another test of the $98 support level would increase.
Intel earnings raise risk of a major price gap
Intel's quarterly earnings report is likely to trigger a significant price gap and a sharp increase in volatility. The gap could develop in either direction depending on the financial results, management's guidance, and the market's reaction.
Short-term traders should take into account the risk of reduced liquidity and stop-loss slippage. Leveraged positions deserve particular caution, as a large price gap could result in losses that exceed the predefined level of risk.
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