What is behind Nasdaq 100 index's recent gain in value today

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Nasdaq 100 rises 1.61% today

Highlights

SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, forcing passive funds to readjust portfolios.
SpaceX's initial weight in the index is projected at below 1%, but index-tracking fund flows could be significant.
Technicals show Nasdaq-100 faces short-term resistance near 29,779, with expected consolidation between 29,118 and 30,055 over five days.

Significant capital flows expected as index funds adjust to SpaceX entry

The exchange operator announced that SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq-100 index before the market opens on July 7. This rapid addition under a new mechanism is expected to prompt passive investment funds, including index funds and ETFs, to adjust their portfolios and include SpaceX shares. Initial estimates suggest SpaceX will enter with a weight of less than 1%, and the event is likely to generate significant capital flows due to index replication requirements.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes the NDX’s recent rally is mostly driven by speculative flows following the news about SpaceX inclusion. He sees the short-term technical picture as fragile, given mixed momentum and the index stalling below its 20-day moving average. Key oscillators such as RSI and Stochastic RSI point to oversold conditions, yet high seller dominance and negative Bull/Bear Power raise concern. Kharitonov is critical of the bullish outlook, highlighting that passive fund inflows may prove fleeting amid lingering downside signals. "Market enthusiasm is likely overextended — traders should not underestimate the risk of retracement if bullish momentum fails to materialize above 29,779."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views SpaceX's rapid addition as a positive catalyst for long-term demand. He argues that index funds and ETFs adjusting for the new component demonstrates structural confidence in tech. The analyst believes the bullish structure remains intact while NDX holds above key long-term averages. Karapetjanc states, "With index mechanics driving capital inflows and the broader trend unchanged, further growth is expected once resistance at 29,779 is overcome."

Mixed momentum and short-term resistance amid renewed session strength

Nasdaq 100 is trading just below its 20-day moving average ($29,779), but sits comfortably above both the 50-day ($28,881) and 200-day ($25,977) moving averages. This construction indicates mild short-term resistance, while the medium- and long-term backdrop remains bullish. The Ichimoku Kijun ($29,479) acts as near-term support and the 20-day MA ($29,779) as resistance. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD gives a strong buy reading, but ADX is neutral at 19.46. RSI at 47.15, CCI at -80.17, and Stochastic RSI at 19.36 all point to near-term oversold or sell conditions. Bull/Bear Power is negative at -200.7, highlighting seller dominance and an oversold intraday context. The Awesome Oscillator reinforces downside momentum, confirming strong selling pressure. Today the index is up 468.86 points (1.61%) after an upside gap of about 214 points (0.74%), with prices trading near the intraday high. Intraday volatility stands at 1.88%. The overall technical tone shows renewed strength into session highs, despite splits between oscillators and trending signals.

Earlier, analysts noted that SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 was expected to boost liquidity and support index strength despite mixed short-term technical signals. The latest price action and indicator shifts suggest that a decisive breakout above the 20-day moving average would confirm renewed upside momentum, making $29,779 a pivotal level for traders to watch in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: NDX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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