What triggered Euro vs Hryvnia price's latest move lower

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Euro vs hryvnia slips 0.59% today

Highlights

EUR/UAH remains under short- and medium-term selling pressure, trading below key moving averages despite longer-term strength.
Momentum and oscillators indicate a weak trend with sellers dominant, as intraday price nears session lows after an initial gap down.
The pair is likely to consolidate between ₴50.7177 and ₴51.3083 over the next five sessions, with a 63% probability of further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/UAH under strong short-term selling pressure. He notes that the pair remains below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming weak demand and prevailing downside momentum. The analyst highlights that both momentum and oscillators fail to show any decisive recovery signals. He is cautious about the absence of supportive news and doubts the sustainability of the longer-term trend with sellers still in control. "Without a clear catalyst or renewed interest, I remain defensive on EUR/UAH until buyers reclaim key resistance levels," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, remains optimistic on EUR/UAH despite recent weakness. He points to the pair's ability to maintain levels above the 200-day average, which suggests the bullish structure remains intact. The analyst views current downside as a temporary correction within a larger upward cycle. He believes opportunities may arise if the pair breaks above resistance at ₴51.2554, paving the way for further recovery. "I see potential for renewed upside, as longer-term buyers are well-positioned to drive the next leg higher," Karapetjanc asserts.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, interprets recent EUR/UAH moves as part of a short-term consolidation phase. He highlights tactical opportunities for contrarian traders near key support at ₴51.0005 if momentum stabilizes. Mehta suggests watching for a potential breakout or false move to signal entry. "A close above resistance or below support could set up fast, tactical trades for agile market participants," says Mehta.

Sellers dominate as technical momentum and oscillators weaken

EUR/UAH is trading below both the 20-day (₴51.5384) and 50-day (₴51.5032) moving averages, indicating short- and medium-term pressure from sellers, while remaining above the 200-day (₴50.7878) average, suggesting longer-term strength is intact. The pair is consolidating near the lower end of today's range, with resistance at ₴51.2554 and support at ₴51.0005. Momentum is weak according to both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Average Directional Index (ADX), as MACD signals a sell and ADX remains neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) both suggest limited buying interest, staying on the softer side of neutral, while the Stochastic RSI is in a neutral reading. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) slightly favors buyers intraday, but overall sellers have the edge, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The pair is currently quoted at ₴51.013, slipping 0.59% on the day after opening with a downside gap of about -0.23%. Price action remains near the session low, with intraday volatility at 0.50% and a cautious tone prevailing as sellers maintain pressure after the open. Signals from momentum and oscillators are largely consistent in favoring a weak short-term outlook.

Earlier, analysts noted that Euro vs Hryvnia was exhibiting rangebound behavior amid prevailing uncertainty and cautious sentiment. With fresh downside momentum and persistently weak technical signals, the risk has shifted toward a move below key support, making a close under ₴51.0005 the pivotal level to watch for confirming further bearish continuation.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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