KBRA affirms San Bernardino toll debt rating with stable outlook

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
KBRA affirms San Bernardino toll rating

Highlights

KBRA affirms SBCTA's BBB- rating on $225 million toll revenue second lien obligation, 2021 TIFIA Series, with stable outlook due to higher-than-expected I-10 Express Lanes performance.
For April 2025–March 2026, I-10 Express Lanes record 14.4 million total trips and $24.3 million gross potential revenue, 46.3% above KBRA's projection.
Capitalized TIFIA loan interest reaches $15.1 million as of December 31, 2025, raising outstanding balance to $240.1 million, with interest capitalization through June 2027 reducing near-term pressure.

I-10 express lanes performance supports rating

As reported by Kroll Bond Rating Agency, the BBB- rating affirmation covers SBCTA's $225 million toll revenue second lien obligation, 2021 TIFIA Series, with the agency citing traffic and revenue results that continue to exceed its original expectations.

The 10-mile I-10 Express Lanes segment became fully operational on August 28, 2024, and received a certificate of substantial completion on November 19, 2025. KBRA says the corridor is a key regional connector for travel between Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Orange counties, and it continues to monitor long-term traffic volumes and usage as the road moves through its ramp-up phase.

For the trailing 12 months from April 2025 through March 2026, the express lanes record about 14.4 million total trips, including 11.1 million tolled trips. Tolled trips account for an average 77% of total traffic, while monthly volumes remain consistent over the period. SBCTA also estimates 111,365 vehicle hours saved from January through March 2026, underscoring the lanes' speed and travel-time benefits.

Revenue trends ease near-term financing pressure

SBCTA's financial operations remain stable over the trailing 12 months ending in March 2026 as toll revenue improves since revenue commencement. Gross potential revenue reaches $24.3 million in that period, about 46.3% above KBRA's projected toll revenue of $16.6 million, while the agency says the authority continues reviewing reporting and collection trends to improve revenue recovery.

As of December 31, 2025, compounded interest on the TIFIA loan totals $15.1 million, bringing the outstanding balance to $240.1 million. Under the loan agreement, interest continues to be capitalized through June 2027, giving the project more time to build traffic and revenue before operating cash flow must fully support debt service.

KBRA says a rating upgrade during the ramp-up and payment-in-kind period is unlikely, although an upgrade could come if traffic and toll revenue significantly and consistently outperform projections. The agency warns it may lower the rating if traffic and revenue fall short of its rating case and weaken the project's ability to generate required cash flow for mandatory debt service.

Our earlier article on Fitch’s BBB rating for Legal & General Group Plc’s restricted Tier 1 notes highlighted that the assessment was driven by the insurer’s strong capital position, resilient balance sheet, and diversified business model. We also noted the agency’s caution around market volatility and regulatory risks, while emphasizing that proactive risk management can help support investor confidence in the firm’s capital strategy.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.