Bitcoin has recovered toward the $61,000 area after briefly falling below $58,000, as weaker US economic data and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reduced expectations of another near-term rate hike. Lower Treasury yields and a softer US dollar have improved risk sentiment, allowing BTC to stage a modest rebound ahead of the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
ETF outflows remain a major headwind
Despite the rebound, institutional demand remains fragile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their weakest month since launch, with heavy June outflows continuing into early July. The persistent withdrawal of institutional capital has weighed on market sentiment and remains one of the main reasons why every recovery attempt has faced renewed selling pressure.
Technical structure remains under pressure
The 4-hour chart continues to favor sellers despite the latest bounce. Bitcoin remains below all major moving averages, confirming that the broader downtrend is still intact. The recent recovery from the $58,000 area has improved short-term momentum, but price is approaching a cluster of dynamic resistance around $62,000-64,000. Unless buyers reclaim that zone, the current advance is likely to be viewed as a corrective rally within a broader bearish trend. A break back below $58,000 would increase the probability of another leg lower.
Macro data will determine the next move
The near-term outlook remains closely tied to US macroeconomic releases. A softer labor market report could reinforce expectations of Fed easing and support risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, stronger employment data would likely revive dollar strength and pressure cryptocurrencies once again. According to Bitcoin remains under pressure as ETF outflows keep sellers in control, until ETF flows stabilize and institutional demand improves, Bitcoin is likely to remain highly sensitive to macro headlines and shifts in interest rate expectations.
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