Lloyds house price index edges higher in UK as June market remains subdued

Lloyds house price index edges higher in UK as June market remains subdued
Lloyds index rises in June

Britain's housing market shows a modest uptick in June after several months of little movement, with prices posting their first monthly rise since February. The increase is slight, and the outlook remains tied to inflation, household confidence and borrowing conditions.

Highlights

  • Lloyds reports UK house prices rose 0.2% in June, the first monthly gain since February, leaving prices 0.6% above last year.
  • Lenders approved the fewest mortgages since December 2023 in May, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty and subdued housing market activity.
  • Markets anticipate a three-in-four chance of a Bank of England interest rate increase this year, likely sustaining pressure on affordability and demand.

June price rise and market signals

As reported by Reuters, citing Lloyds, its measure of UK house prices rises 0.2% in June, leaving prices 0.6% higher than a year earlier.

The monthly increase is the first since February and comes after house prices remain broadly flat since the start of the year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast a 0.1% monthly gain and a 0.8% annual increase.

The indicator is known as the Halifax House Price Index until this month.

Borrowing conditions shape housing outlook

Lloyds says wider economic uncertainty continues to weigh on the market. Recent Bank of England data shows lenders approve the fewest mortgages since December 2023 in May.

Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Lloyds, says the housing market is expected to continue moving at a measured pace. She says the outlook for house prices depends largely on inflation continuing to ease and household confidence gradually improving.

Financial markets point to roughly a three-in-four chance of a quarter-point rise in Bank of England interest rates taking place this year, a factor that could keep pressure on affordability and demand.

Our earlier report on UK gilt yields and fiscal constraints explained how elevated borrowing costs and the bond market’s sensitivity to inflation and energy shocks can limit the government’s room for manoeuvre. We also noted that with a sizable share of inflation-linked debt and heavy refinancing needs, shifts in rate expectations can quickly feed through into funding costs and broader financial conditions.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
Weekly Top Bonuses
up to $2,500
deposit bonus for all clients
CLAIM BONUS
Your capital is at risk.