Kalshi traders raise bets on higher U.S. gas prices through Election Day
Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran are pushing market expectations toward a longer stretch of elevated gasoline prices in the United States. On prediction platform Kalshi, traders now assign a 75% chance that the national average price on Nov. 3 stays above $3.50 a gallon, signaling a sharp shift from levels seen before the latest Middle East developments.
Highlights
- Kalshi traders now assign a 75% probability that U.S. average gas prices exceed $3.50 per gallon on Nov. 3, up from 37% before U.S.-Iran hostilities.
- AAA reports national average gas price at $3.84 on Thursday, a 5-cent daily increase and a sharp rise from below $3 per gallon earlier in the week.
- Kalshi odds for gas prices topping $4.60 in 2024 reach 43%, up from one in three before conflict, but still below the 2026 high of $4.56.
Prediction market bets track fuel price risks
As reported by CNBC, traders on Kalshi are increasing wagers that gasoline prices remain elevated into Election Day as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify. The platform shows a 75% probability that average U.S. gas prices on Nov. 3 are above $3.50 per gallon, while the odds of prices exceeding $3.75 stand at 39%.Before the recent hostilities involving the U.S. and Iran, those probabilities are as low as 37% for prices above $3.50 and 22% for prices above $3.75. The move reflects a rapid repricing of consumer fuel cost expectations as energy markets respond to developments in the Middle East.
Oil swings shape outlook for consumers
AAA data show the national average gas price is $3.84 on Thursday, up 5 cents from the previous day. Before the latest conflict developments, average U.S. gas prices are below $3 per gallon, highlighting how quickly pump prices have climbed.Crude prices are also moving sharply, with U.S. oil rising as high as $75 a barrel on Wednesday from around $68 on Monday before WTI eases to below $72 on Thursday. Even so, Kalshi traders do not yet expect a return to substantially higher peaks, assigning a 43% chance that gas prices top $4.60 at some point this year, up from roughly one in three before hostilities resume.
The highest national average gas price in 2026 is $4.56 on May 21, suggesting traders currently expect sustained pressure rather than a breakout far beyond earlier highs. For consumers and retailers, that points to a fuel-cost backdrop that could remain a factor in household budgets through the November vote.
In our earlier article on WTI holding elevated amid renewed Middle East tensions, we noted that crude prices were supported by a rising geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.–Iran confrontation and potential disruption risks near the Strait of Hormuz. We also highlighted that mixed U.S. inventory signals were keeping volatility high even without a clear interruption in oil flows.
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