QQQ options trade signals bullish Nasdaq-100 bet

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QQQ options bullish Nasdaq-100

Highlights

A trader purchased 28,000 QQQ 736-strike calls expiring July 31 for $30 million and sold a $6 million 730/740-strike call spread, targeting an all-time high in the Nasdaq-100 by month-end.
Open interest in the QQQ 736-strike calls matched trade volume, suggesting possible buybacks of previously sold calls and indicating a neutral-to-positive outlook rather than high-conviction bullishness.
$1.6 billion in QQQ options traded Thursday with $944 million in calls, while significant upside trades also appeared in SPY and Oklo, reflecting ongoing risk appetite despite range-bound index performance.

Structure of the QQQ bet

As reported by CNBC, the core of the position is a $30 million purchase of 28,000 QQQ 736-strike calls expiring July 31, executed about 90 minutes after the opening bell. At the same time, the trader sold $6 million of a 730/740-strike call spread with the same expiration, reducing the upfront cost while lifting the breakeven level to about $750, less than $2 above the fund's early-June high.

The trade requires the Nasdaq-100 to push to an all-time high by the end of July to generate a strong payoff. Scott Bauer, chief executive of Chicago-based Prosper Trading Academy, said the position needs the Qs to move sharply higher, adding that a slow grind in the index would leave the trade under pressure.

Open interest in the 736-strike calls matched the volume of the transaction at the time it was executed, suggesting the trader may be buying back calls previously sold. That would imply a lower-conviction setup than an outright new bullish wager, but it still points to a neutral-to-positive stance on the index.

Broader options activity highlights risk appetite

Despite recent volatility, the Nasdaq 100 has been effectively flat since May 14 and last reached a high on June 3. Data from ThinkOrSwim show most options volume has centered around the $710 level, while the S&P 500 has traded in a roughly 200-point range since early May.

Of the $1.6 billion in QQQ options traded on Thursday, $944 million is tied to calls, according to SpotGamma data, although ThinkOrSwim data indicate that call selling and call buying are running at roughly similar levels. The balance between bought and sold contracts in both puts and calls suggests the standout QQQ position is notable more for its directional bias than for a broad one-way rush into bullish exposure.

Other large trades also reflect a willingness to take upside risk. In SPY, a trader bought 2,000 deep in-the-money 500-strike calls expiring July 24 for $50 million, while in Oklo, another trader bought $46 million of 200-strike calls expiring in January 2028 and $21 million of 90-strike calls expiring in mid-December, even as the stock currently trades at $50.

In our earlier article on the Nasdaq 100’s rally, we covered how fresh demand was tied to BlackRock’s launch of the iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF and SpaceX’s official addition to the index, helping reinforce a bullish bias. We also noted that while the index was trading above key moving averages, momentum indicators were mixed—suggesting the uptrend could continue, but with elevated correction risk if sentiment turns.

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