Support test at GBX6,577. Can RIO avoid deeper losses?

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Rio Tinto slides 0.27% to GBX6,675

Highlights

RIO/GBX faces pronounced short- and medium-term downside momentum, trading below key short-term moving averages.
Bearish technical signals dominate with robust selling pressure confirmed by momentum and oscillator indicators, reinforcing negative sentiment.
Expected trading range is GBX6,494 to GBX6,855 with a 77% probability of downside continuation unless resistance at GBX6,798 is breached.

Sell momentum confirmed as bearish signals converge and support holds

On the hourly chart, RIO is trading below the MA-20 (GBX6,709) and MA-50 (GBX6,789), but remains above the daily MA-200 (GBX6,577). Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at GBX6,798. Momentum signals from indicators are strongly bearish: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) registers a strong sell, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms that sellers are in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Stochastic RSI all suggest selling or strong sell conditions, while Bull/Bear Power signals oversold territory and intraday seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not contradict the current trend.

Downside bias prevails as breakout trigger levels watched

Over the next several days, RIO is forecast to trade in a volatility band between GBX6,494 and GBX6,855. The probability of an upward move is assessed at 23%, while a move lower is more likely at 77%. Should the price remain within this range, a sideways consolidation pattern is expected. A breakout above GBX6,798 resistance could open room for a bullish scenario, while a drop below support points towards the lower end of the forecasted range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Rio Tinto trading with short-term bearish momentum but notes support above the daily MA-200 at GBX6,577. He highlights that macro trends and sentiment remain key, even as intraday indicators point to sellers in control. The current range between GBX6,494 and GBX6,855 suggests a period of sideways consolidation unless a breakout occurs. "If buyers reclaim GBX6,798, the probability for a bullish reversal will improve, but for now, patience is key as consolidation dominates," says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that Rio Tinto faced sustained selling pressure amid technical weakness and uncertainty following revisions to its Oyu Tolgoi project agreement. With current momentum indicators reinforcing a bearish setup and volatility remaining elevated, traders should monitor for a potential breakdown below key long-term support, which could intensify downside risk in the near term.

Source of Data: RIO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.