US Dollar vs Korean Won trades down after South Korea expands won trading for foreign investors

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Usd/krw slides 0.52% today

Highlights

South Korea is liberalizing the won market by enabling offshore settlement and 24-hour trading for foreign investors.
The measures, set to be fully operational next year, aim to boost global participation but have yet to lift persistent selling pressure on the won.
USD/KRW trades under key moving averages, with momentum indicators signaling bearish bias and an expected five-day range between ₩1,465 and ₩1,489.

Foreign access expands as new settlement regime boosts global flows

South Korea implemented changes to foreign exchange and currency market access, introducing an offshore won settlement system and allowing foreigners to transact in won without local bank accounts. The initiative will also provide 24-hour won trading for overseas investors, with a pilot network beginning in September and full-scale operation planned for next year. These measures are intended to make won assets more accessible to global institutions, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/KRW remains under heavy selling pressure. The pair is trading below all major moving averages, with technical indicators signaling a persistent bearish momentum. He points out the lack of nearby support levels and stresses that oversold readings may persist given weak sentiment. Kharitonov believes the impact of South Korea's new regulatory measures has yet to trigger a recovery. "Until price action reclaims the 20-day or 50-day averages, I see little reason for optimism in USD/KRW," he says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the long-term opportunity created by South Korea's FX reforms for global investors. He views the new access and 24-hour trading as a structural positive, potentially leading to a more vibrant market. Karapetjanc thinks the bullish structure is technically intact with the 50-day average above the 200-day. He expects the USD/KRW corridor to stabilize and set up for further growth when the macro backdrop aligns. "With regulatory momentum in place, I anticipate renewed institutional inflows and new highs over time," he states.

Bearish momentum prevails with price anchored below key averages

USD/KRW trades below the 20-day (₩1,515), 50-day (₩1,520), and 200-day (₩1,482) moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure on multiple timeframes. The near-term ceiling is at ₩1,482, and the floor is at ₩1,477, offering little technical support from major averages. The long-term trend remains bullish as the 50-day average stands above the 200-day. Momentum remains bearish, with both MACD and RSI (36.53) signaling 'sell,' although RSI does not indicate textbook oversold. The CCI (-90.92) and BBP (-10.56) further confirm seller dominance, while BBP notes an 'oversold' condition intraday. The Awesome Oscillator also points bearish, ADX signals a weak trend, and Stochastic RSI shows neutral conditions. Price action has stayed near the session low on subdued intraday volatility.

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent bearish momentum and technical signals continued to dominate USD/KRW trading despite oversold conditions. The latest market reaction to South Korea's new measures reinforces this pressure, making the ₩1,477 floor a critical level for traders to watch for a potential downside break in the near term.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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