U.S. prediction markets price September payrolls above economist forecasts
Ahead of Friday's U.S. labor market release, prediction market traders are signaling expectations for another month of solid hiring. The pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket points to payroll growth above Wall Street estimates, after August job gains came in stronger than expected.
Highlights
- Kalshi traders assign nearly 60% odds that September U.S. nonfarm payrolls surpass 90,000, exceeding the Dow Jones consensus of 84,000.
- Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show roughly even odds that September payroll gains are above 100,000, using official BLS data.
- August payrolls rebounded to 162,000 jobs, reinforcing market expectations for stronger jobs data and supporting a hawkish potential Fed stance on rates.
Market bets ahead of the payrolls release
As reported by CNBC, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi see nearly 60% odds that the U.S. adds more than 90,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, while the market is roughly split on whether job growth tops 100,000. That is above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 84,000 jobs for the month.Kalshi's contracts ask traders whether the U.S. adds more than a specified number of jobs, with outcomes settled using official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Traders on Polymarket are also pricing roughly even odds that September payrolls come in at more than 100,000, using the same official benchmark for resolution.
Labor market and policy implications
Recent labor data helps explain the firmer expectations in prediction markets. After signs of weakness earlier in the summer, August payrolls showed a rebound, with the U.S. adding 162,000 jobs, a result that exceeded expectations.A stronger labor market gives Federal Reserve policymakers more room to keep their focus on inflation, which remains above target, and to raise interest rates at the September meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to publish the September employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m., while ADP's national employment report is scheduled for Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Our earlier coverage of Kalshi’s fundraising and expansion plans outlined how the prediction-market platform was in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion, potentially valuing the company far above its prior round. We also noted intensifying competition with Polymarket and rising regulatory scrutiny as these markets grow more mainstream and broaden beyond elections and sports into wider financial-style wagering.
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