Ukraine signals expanded refinery strikes as Russian attacks intensify

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Ukraine targets Russian refineries

Highlights

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will escalate strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to Moscow expanding attacks on infrastructure, logistics, and urban targets around Kyiv.
Ukraine's Vivaldi counteroffensive has retaken about 140 square kilometers in Donbas, while intensified Russian missile and drone attacks are straining Ukraine's defenses and ammunition supplies.
Zelenskyy reports Brussels talks yielded funding for drone procurement and measures to address a $27 billion gap in Ukraine's 2024 defense budget, including use of advanced EU loan tranches.

Kyiv outlines response to Russia's winter attack strategy

As reported by CNBC, citing Reuters, Zelenskyy says Ukrainian intelligence has obtained documents indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a broader doctrine of attacks on infrastructure, logistics and urban areas to pressure civilians to leave Kyiv and other cities.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will answer the shift by increasing pressure on Russia's energy sector, particularly oil refineries that help fund the war. He says Kyiv will not mirror Moscow by striking civilian sites indiscriminately, even as Russian drone and missile attacks intensify against energy, telecoms, road and rail assets in the capital and elsewhere.

He also says Russia is now targeting bridges across the Dnipro River linking eastern and western Kyiv, marking a further escalation in the campaign. The Kremlin is not available for comment, while Russia's Foreign Ministry says Moscow will continue what it calls retaliatory strikes in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.

Zelenskyy says he has seen no sign that Moscow is ready for peace talks or an energy ceasefire, despite renewed diplomatic efforts by the Trump administration. He says any normalization of Russia's economic and diplomatic ties with the West must be tied to an end to hostilities, and adds that technical-level trilateral talks proposed by the U.S. in the UAE still do not have a fixed date or location.

Defense pressure, weapons supply and budget gap shape outlook

Zelenskyy says Ukraine's counteroffensive, code-named Vivaldi, has recaptured about 140 square kilometers in the eastern Donbas region and is still continuing. He argues that battlefield pressure and rising Russian casualties are helping drive the Kremlin's harder strike policy.

At the same time, Kyiv is preparing for a difficult winter air campaign. Zelenskyy says Russia has amassed hundreds of ballistic missiles and is launching large numbers of jet-powered Shahed drones, forcing Ukraine to rely heavily on F-16 and MiG aircraft to intercept about 60% of them, even as 20 mm ammunition supplies run low.

Ukraine is working on alternative defenses, including stronger electronic jamming and small, low-cost air defense missiles due to arrive in the second half of October. Zelenskyy also says Ukraine is developing five interceptor drone models, with two prototypes showing about a 30% success rate in tests, and is pressing domestic producer Fire Point to complete the longer-range FP-9 missile after the first combat use of the locally made FP-7 this week.

On funding, Zelenskyy says talks in Brussels have helped unlock financing for drone orders needed at the start of 2027 and support efforts to cover a $27 billion hole in this year's defense budget. He says the plan combines reallocations within Ukraine's budget, bilateral aid and advances tied to next year's share of a 90 billion euro EU loan.

Our earlier article on Ukraine’s push to sanction Russia’s Rassvet satellite network explained Kyiv’s call for tighter restrictions on technology that could strengthen Russian battlefield communications as Moscow works on an alternative to Starlink. We noted Zelenskyy’s argument that the system could improve the accuracy of drone and air strikes ahead of winter, while he urged Washington to expand pressure on the entities involved.

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