Mark Esper warns Iran war could stretch into 2027, diverting U.S. focus from China

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Esper warns Iran war could last

Highlights

Mark Esper warns the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on until at least 2027, with a difficult path to a negotiated settlement and potentially unresolved into 2029.
U.S. officials are weighing a resumption of large-scale military operations in the coming weeks as the conflict with Iran reaches an impasse and diplomatic options remain limited.
Esper cautions extended U.S. focus on Iran allows China to strengthen its global economic, technological, and military position, urging a strategic pivot with allied support.

Esper outlines prolonged conflict risk

As reported by CNBC, Esper says the U.S.-Iran war could last for years, with no end visible in the foreseeable future. Speaking at the LSEG and Eurasia Group GZERO Summit in London and later on the sidelines of the event, he says the conflict could continue at its current pace, with an American blockade, periodic flare-ups and a difficult path to a negotiated settlement.

Esper says any agreement would need to restore the Strait of Hormuz to the status quo and also be judged against the nuclear deal reached under former President Barack Obama. He says that makes diplomacy politically and strategically difficult for President Donald Trump, raising the possibility that the war is handed to the next administration in 2029.

The conflict has reached an impasse, with Trump saying on Wednesday that making a deal with Tehran is not really something he wants to do. Reports also indicate U.S. officials are considering a resumption of large-scale military operations in the coming weeks.

Esper, who served as defense secretary from July 2019 to November 2020, says he has long supported economic pressure on Iran. But he adds that such a strategy requires time, discipline and patience, qualities he says Washington often struggles to sustain, even if economic strangulation remains the least bad option available now.

China warning adds wider strategic concern

Esper says the deeper risk for the U.S. is that extended focus on Iran leaves China with more room to strengthen its global position. He describes China as America’s greatest adversary and says Washington is not paying enough attention as Beijing builds economic, technological, diplomatic and military capacity.

He says China has spent at least three decades working toward long-term dominance and has used the global trading system since joining the World Trade Organization to expand both economic and military power. He points to Chinese strength in electric vehicles, rare earths, solar panels and critical materials as evidence of a coordinated national strategy backed by state control over the economy.

Esper says the U.S. should shift its efforts toward China in partnership with European and Asian allies. In his view, that response needs to extend beyond military cooperation to include diplomatic, economic and technological alignment.

In our earlier article on Hertha Metals’ push to produce high-purity iron for rare earth magnets, we explained how the startup aims to close a supply-chain gap that still leaves U.S. manufacturers heavily exposed to China. We also noted the company’s plan to scale from steel-grade output to magnet-grade material later this decade, backed by significant funding as Washington steps up efforts to secure key inputs for defense and high-tech industries.

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