WTI crude steadies near $63 as tariffs and supply risks weigh on outlook

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WTI crude steadies near $63

Highlights

- WTI crude trades around $63.20 after a 2% drop, balancing tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

- Technicals show resistance at $64.80, with key support at $62.50 and the August low at $60.70.

- U.S. tariffs on India and Russia-Ukraine strikes drive uncertainty over demand and supply flows.

The result is fragile consolidation as traders assess whether near-term risks tilt demand lower or supply higher. Washington’s decision to double tariffs on some Indian imports to 50% has clouded the outlook for global oil demand. India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, had slowed Russian purchases under earlier sanctions but has signaled it may resume higher volumes in the coming months. At the same time, escalating strikes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have renewed concerns about possible disruptions to supply routes and infrastructure.

WTI price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Adding to volatility, U.S. political noise over Federal Reserve independence has weighed on broader risk sentiment. Meanwhile, API data showed a draw of just under one million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week, smaller than the 1.7 million barrel reduction expected, leaving traders underwhelmed on the demand side.

Technical structure favors caution

The four-hour chart highlights a market still grappling with overhead resistance. WTI has been trading inside a rising channel since mid-August, but rallies have failed to sustain above the mid-line near $63.50. The 20-period EMA at $63.60 and the 50-EMA at $63.97 are capping advances, with the 100-EMA at $64.78 forming a heavier resistance zone. Monday’s rejection near the 200-EMA underscored how supply remains dominant in this band.

Momentum signals reflect hesitancy. The RSI has eased to 45 after peaking near 65 last week, suggesting the recent rebound was corrective rather than a fresh trend. Unless buyers defend $62.50 to $62.80—the channel’s lower boundary—the risk tilts back toward the August low at $60.70. A break below that level could accelerate selling, opening the path toward $59.50 to $58.80, where previous bases formed earlier this year.

Upside levels are equally clear. A reclaim of $63.60 with follow-through above $64.00 would open the way to test $64.80. Sustained trade above this zone would mark the first technical shift in sentiment since July, allowing room toward $66.20 and possibly $68.00 if geopolitical drivers or inventory draws align with bullish momentum.

Outlook hinges on India and inventories

The next moves in WTI depend on whether tariffs dent India’s crude imports or if geopolitical disruptions lift supply fears. India’s purchasing decisions carry significant weight given its ranking as the third-largest consumer of oil. Meanwhile, any escalation of Russian-Ukrainian strikes could offset bearish demand signals by amplifying supply risks.

For now, the technical bias remains defensive while prices trade beneath $64.80 and momentum holds below the RSI midline. A close under $62.50 would likely shift attention back to the August trough at $60.70, while reclaiming the $64 handle with strength could reinstate the recovery narrative. Traders are keeping positioning light ahead of this week’s official EIA inventory release, which may determine whether oil stabilizes or resumes its decline.

In earlier coverage, we highlighted the $63.50–64.10 pivot as the defining zone for near-term direction. That range continues to act as the bull-bear line, with the August low near $60.70 still serving as the critical downside marker. Unless WTI clears $64.80, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than a shift in trend.

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