Nvidia stock falls 1.1% on mixed post-earnings reaction

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Nvidia stock falls

Highlights

- Nvidia reported strong earnings but issued a Q3 revenue forecast that, while in line with consensus, fell short of the market’s most optimistic expectations.

- The stock declined 1.1% as investors reacted to cautious guidance and ongoing China-related uncertainties.

- Multiple analysts raised their price targets, highlighting continued demand for Nvidia’s next-generation AI chips.

The RSI sits just below 70, signaling strong but cooling momentum. Short-term traders may interpret this as a pause before a breakout or a mild pullback. Immediate resistance lies between $182 and $185—a price zone tested earlier this week. A clean break above this area could open the path toward $195–$200. Support is seen at $175 and more firmly around $170, a level that has held multiple times this summer.

Volume remains well above the 20-day average, indicating active institutional trading. The MACD is still in bullish alignment, but narrowing histogram bars suggest the current upward move may need fresh catalysts to continue. From a price structure standpoint, the stock is still forming higher lows, which reinforces its bullish undertone.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

In addition, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, indicating a potential increase in volatility in the coming sessions. With the price currently hugging the upper band, this may signal either an impending breakout or a short-term overextension. Historically, when Nvidia trades near the upper band with elevated volume, the stock often consolidates before making a directional move. Traders should monitor any intraday reversals or sharp breakouts with confirmation from volume spikes, as these could signal a renewed leg higher or the beginning of a short-term correction.

Analysts raise targets despite muted guidance

Analysts see more upside ahead for Nvidia despite a fiscal Q3 revenue forecast that came in softer than some market participants had anticipated. Following the earnings release, at least 10 major research firms raised their 12-month price targets, lifting the average target to $202.60—implying around 12% upside from Nvidia’s pre-earnings close. JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur raised his target by 26% to $215, citing robust demand visibility for Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell architecture and a backlog that continues to exceed supply. Truist Securities' William Stein took his target even higher, to $228, underscoring management’s confidence in long-term AI infrastructure spending.

Nvidia guided for fiscal Q3 revenue of around $54 billion, in line with consensus but below some bullish expectations that exceeded $60 billion. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore noted that while the top-line guidance was viewed as conservative, especially relative to the stock’s elevated valuation, the underlying demand narrative remains firm. Nvidia has added over $1 trillion in market capitalization since May, gaining nearly 35% after its Q1 earnings beat—underscoring Wall Street’s conviction in its central role within the AI revolution.

Despite the generally optimistic outlook, analysts continue to highlight risks tied to China. Although the U.S. government has recently relaxed some AI chip export restrictions, these regulatory adjustments have not yet translated into a meaningful recovery in Nvidia’s China-related revenue. CEO Jensen Huang indicated that Nvidia could adjust its product strategy to meet international demand, including future Blackwell shipments to China, but the geopolitical landscape remains a wild card. As a result, visibility into the region's contribution remains limited.

Price path hinges on earnings digestion and AI demand signals

Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock has entered a consolidation phase just below the $180 mark, as investors digest slightly tempered revenue guidance and reassess short-term growth expectations. While the fiscal Q3 forecast of $54 billion aligned with consensus, it fell short of more optimistic projections, prompting a moderate pullback from recent highs. Nonetheless, technical support remains intact at $170, and price action continues to respect the trend of higher lows established since early summer.

Assuming no major macro disruptions, the stock is likely to oscillate between $175 and $185 in the short term, with a potential breakout to $195–$200 if sentiment strengthens on the back of incoming Blackwell-related demand signals. With major analysts raising price targets and institutional buying pressure evident in above-average trading volumes, the broader trend still favors upward continuation—though at a more gradual pace than in Q1 or Q2.

Nvidia beat expectations with Q2 earnings of $1.05 per share on $46.7 billion in revenue, surpassing analyst forecasts. However, a slight miss in data center revenue at $41.1 billion versus the $41.3 billion estimate led to a negative market reaction.

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