Nvidia stock consolidates at $173 as China risks offset record Q2 results

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Nvidia stock consolidates

Highlights

• Nvidia remains technically strong, trading above its 200-day moving average, though momentum indicators suggest short-term fatigue.

• Q2 earnings beat expectations with $46.7B in revenue and a $60B buyback, but growth concerns in data centers and China restrictions limit upside.

• In the near term, the stock is likely to consolidate between $165–$185 before any decisive breakout.

Nvidia continues to trade well above its 200-day moving average, reinforcing the long-term bullish trend. However, shorter-term indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD show signs of weakening momentum. Price action has largely hovered near the 20-day moving average, which currently acts as short-term support. A sustained close below this level could trigger profit-taking and possibly pull the stock toward the next major support area at $160.

On the upside, resistance remains firm around the $180–$185 region, which aligns with recent failed breakout attempts. Only a decisive close above $185 would reopen the path toward $200, a psychological level closely tied to analyst targets and investor sentiment. For now, Nvidia appears technically overextended in the short term but structurally sound from a medium- to long-term trend perspective.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Despite the recent consolidation, trading volumes remain elevated, suggesting that institutional interest in Nvidia has not diminished. This ongoing participation by large investors may help stabilize the stock during pullbacks and provide the liquidity needed for any potential breakout. Additionally, implied volatility has edged lower, indicating a reduction in near-term market anxiety. This combination of strong long-term structure and active positioning suggests that, while short-term corrections are possible, the broader technical setup continues to favor bullish continuation once current resistance levels are cleared.

Q2 earnings strong, but China and valuation concerns remain

Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results were nothing short of historic. The company reported $46.7 billion in revenue, up 56% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.05, both beating analyst expectations. Forward guidance was also strong, with Q3 revenue projected at $54 billion, signaling confidence in sustained AI-driven demand across sectors. In addition, Nvidia announced a $60 billion stock buyback, further boosting shareholder sentiment.

Despite the strong numbers, the stock sold off slightly post-earnings, highlighting investor concerns over a few lingering issues. Firstly, the company’s data center revenue—while still growing rapidly—came in just shy of market expectations. Given that this segment anchors Nvidia’s AI dominance, any perceived plateau in growth can weigh on the stock disproportionately.

The biggest headwind remains geopolitical. Nvidia confirmed that no H20 chips were sold to China in Q2, due to ongoing U.S. export restrictions. With China representing a historically significant market for Nvidia's high-end chips, the absence of clarity on future access continues to overshadow growth prospects. Moreover, ongoing trade tensions and regulatory unpredictability present further downside risk.

Range-bound with breakout potential

In the short term, Nvidia’s price trajectory will likely be shaped by macro factors such as U.S.-China relations, Treasury yields, and broader tech sector sentiment. Assuming no further deterioration in these areas, Nvidia is expected to consolidate between $165–$185 over the coming weeks. This range allows for digestion of recent earnings and reassessment of forward expectations.

A bullish breakout scenario could take shape if U.S. export policy toward China is clarified or eased, allowing Nvidia to resume chip sales into a massive demand market. Combined with continued strength in AI infrastructure, this could lift the stock toward the $200–$210 range by early Q4.

Alibaba is testing a domestic AI chip, signaling rising competition for Nvidia in China amid growing U.S.-China tech tensions. Nvidia reported zero sales of its H20 chip to China last quarter, as regulatory uncertainty continues to stall exports.

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