Gold price prediction: XAU steadies near $3,680 as Fed meeting looms

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Gold price analysis for September 17th

Highlights

- Gold slips to $3,680 after profit-taking from record highs.

- Markets price in 25bps Fed cut with potential for more easing.

- Technical channel intact with targets at $3,720 and above.

Fed policy expectations dominate

The Federal Reserve’s policy decision is the central focus this week. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut, the first of the year, after months of anticipation. A run of softer payroll data has raised expectations for as many as three cuts before year-end, even as the U.S. economy shows resilience. August retail sales climbed 0.6%, while the control group rose 0.7%, marking four consecutive months of gains.

This divergence—weakening labor markets paired with steady consumption—has created an unusual backdrop. For gold, the balance tilts toward monetary easing, keeping investors positioned for higher prices despite near-term economic strength.

Technical resilience supports outlook

On the 4-hour chart, gold continues to respect its ascending channel, with immediate support near the 20-EMA at $3,669 and secondary support around the 50-EMA at $3,631. The RSI has cooled from overbought levels, signaling consolidation rather than exhaustion.

XAU price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Should prices remain above $3,665, traders may target a retest of the recent equal highs near $3,720, with a breakout opening room toward $3,760 and $3,800. A failure to defend $3,669 could expose retracement zones at $3,568 and $3,493, but the broader structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact.

Broader sentiment and risks

Smart money indicators point to resting liquidity above $3,720, suggesting potential for an accelerated move if that level is cleared. At the same time, deeper supports near $3,320 remain unchallenged, highlighting that the long-term bull trend is unlikely to be compromised without a sharp reversal.

Attention will focus on the Fed’s updated dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone during the press conference. A dovish signal could reinforce bullion’s climb into uncharted territory, while cautious messaging may prompt consolidation. Global central banks’ continued reserve diversification and persistent safe-haven inflows underpin the longer-term case for gold.

In our earlier coverage, we highlighted gold’s breakout above $3,650 as the gateway to higher levels, with structural strength supported by central bank demand. The latest retreat to $3,680 reflects natural profit-taking rather than trend exhaustion, keeping the bullish thesis intact as long as $3,665 holds.

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