Nasdaq Composite rally stretches near 22,400 as buybacks and policy hopes fuel demand

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Sholanke Dele

17.09.2025

Nasdaq Composite rally stretches near 22,400 as buybacks and policy hopes fuel demand — Nasdaq trades near fresh highs as futures price in rate cuts

The Nasdaq Composite Index has been extending its historic rally, recording a series of consecutive all-time highs after breaking above the August peak at 21,800.

Since then, the index has closed higher for eight straight sessions, a stretch that reflects the strong momentum driving U.S. equities. However, Tuesday’s session showed signs of consolidation. The Nasdaq touched another record at 22,400 before slipping lower to close at 22,330, underperforming Monday’s finish as major U.S. stocks also eased.

- Nasdaq hits 22,400 before slipping to 22,330 ahead of Fed decision.

- Powell’s remarks and dot plot expected to shape Nasdaq’s near-term direction.

- Buyback projections near $600 billion add fuel to Nasdaq’s bullish momentum.

The moderation in price action comes at a critical juncture. Markets are now fully priced for a Federal Reserve rate cut of 25 basis points, which would bring the federal funds rate into the 4% to 4.25% range. Yet beyond today’s move, futures markets expect nearly 150 basis points of easing through the end of next year. This expectation places heightened importance on Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and the central bank’s dot plot of economic projections later in the day, which could either validate or temper such aggressive forecasts.

Nasdaq price dynamic (July - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

The case for a rate cut is not straightforward. August retail sales data surprised to the upside, with core sales advancing 0.7% compared to forecasts of 0.4%. This resilience in consumer spending runs counter to the notion of an economy in urgent need of monetary easing, particularly given that inflation pressures remain elevated. Under normal conditions, strong consumer demand and sticky inflation would argue against reducing rates. However, political considerations and the desire to maintain stability have tilted expectations toward a consistent easing cycle that markets now regard as highly probable.

Nasdaq upside potential linked to buyback wave projected at $600 billion

From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq remains firmly in bullish territory, but the concentration of record highs has also made the index more vulnerable to short-term volatility. The Federal Reserve’s announcement could provide the spark for another breakout, potentially lifting the index by more than 500 points beyond the 22,800 level if investors embrace the dovish policy path. Conversely, any suggestion that rate cuts may not proceed as aggressively as expected could trigger profit-taking after the steep run-up.

Additional support comes from corporate actions, particularly the ongoing wave of stock buybacks. Analysts at JPMorgan project that U.S. companies could authorise another $600 billion in repurchases, reinforcing equity demand. High-profile examples such as Tesla’s repurchases led by Elon Musk illustrate how buybacks amplify upward pressure on share prices, a trend that feeds directly into the strength of the Nasdaq Composite.

In summary, the index’s next leg depends heavily on how the Federal Reserve balances its message between economic resilience and political realities. A dovish outcome could fuel another record-breaking surge, while any restraint may lead to near-term cooling after a remarkable series of gains.

Nasdaq hits 22,042 record as strong trading volume confirms broad investor commitment. Tesla rally and institutional flows supported Nasdaq momentum toward higher record levels.

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