Costco: institutional inflows and earnings anticipation led to sideways price forecast

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Costco Drops 0.49% Today to $957.80

Highlights

Costco (COST) trades at $957.80, below its MA-20 ($958.22) and MA-50 ($959.42), signaling short-term seller pressure and weak momentum.
Institutional investors including KMG Fiduciary Partners LLC and Catalyst Private Wealth LLC have increased holdings while Costco paid a $1.30 quarterly dividend on August 15.
Bearish momentum persists with daily MACD negative, ADX at 14.12, and probability of price increase below 20%, favoring downside toward $942.58.

Analyst focus and institutional buying as earnings approach

Costco is set to release its quarterly earnings for the period ending August 2025, with analysts watching closely as the results could significantly influence the share price. Recent quarters have seen increased institutional investment, with KMG Fiduciary Partners LLC and Catalyst Private Wealth LLC raising their holdings, and the company paid a quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share on August 15. A new leveraged ETF tied to COST and ongoing low debt levels underline continued interest and confidence from investors.

Mixed momentum and moderate volatility as technical signals diverge

The Ichimoku chart shows nearby resistance at the Kijun line ($966.28) and support near the MA-20 alongside round number levels. Momentum signals are mixed: the daily MACD remains strongly bearish, ADX at 14.12 depicts a weak overall trend, while RSI is neutral-to-bullish. Both the Stoch RSI and CCI suggest mild oversold conditions, with the BBP pointing to a balance between buyers and sellers. The session opened with a modest gap down from $962.50 to $957.55 and the price is hovering between $955.31 and $960.51 after slipping 0.49%, with volatility holding at moderate levels and signals conflicting between short and long timeframes.

Downside risk prevails on weak momentum and resistance cap

For the coming week, COST is expected to consolidate within a range of $955 to $965, with a potential move as low as $942.58 or a push toward resistance at $966.28. The likelihood of a price increase is low — less than 20% — so a decline remains the favored outcome. Upside is capped by persistent bearish momentum on weekly charts, while a breakdown below $955 could see the price test the recent low at $942.58.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Costco’s setup as vulnerable in the near term, with technicals showing bearish momentum below key moving averages and mixed signals from oscillators. Despite increasing institutional interest and a stable dividend, the technical overhang, neutral-to-bullish RSI, and lack of strong trend support a defensive stance. The analyst believes consolidation is likely, but the risk of a breakdown below $955 remains elevated. "As long as COST stays under resistance around $966, I remain cautious—any sustainable upside requires clear confirmation from both price and momentum."

Last time, we reported that neutral sentiment prevails amid absence of impactful news for Costco stock. Technical analysis suggested that bearish momentum was dominant despite mixed signals from key oscillators, as outlined in bearish momentum was dominant despite mixed signals.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.