Protests in Georgia and OPEC decision: Market reaction to day key events

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Protests in Georgia and OPEC decision

Key events of the day

Protests in Georgia. In Georgia, mass demonstrations erupted following the October 4 municipal elections, which the European Union described as “non-competitive and non-transparent.” Most opposition parties boycotted the vote, citing pressure on activists and alleged fraud in favor of the ruling Georgian Dream party. In the evening, opposition leader Paata Burchuladze announced the creation of a “National Assembly,” declaring that power now belongs to the people. After the rally, a group of protesters marched toward the presidential residence at Orbeliani Palace and attempted to seize it. Police used water cannons, pepper spray, and other special means; several people were injured and detained. The Georgian Interior Ministry opened criminal cases for violence, assaulting law enforcement officers, and attempting to seize a strategic facility.

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Elections in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic has completed the count of 100% of ballots from the parliamentary elections held over the weekend. The populist ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, won 34.5% of the vote and secured 80 out of 200 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The ruling SPOLU (“Together”) bloc came second with 23.4% and 52 seats. Babiš’s party cannot form a majority government on its own and is considering a coalition. At a press conference, Babiš called the victory “historic” and expressed his intention to form a single-party government with the support of allied movements.

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Gaza talks. Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have begun in Cairo, with Washington hoping they will mark a step toward ending the nearly two-year war and securing the release of hostages. The delegations are led by Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Hamas representative Khalil al-Hayya. The United States is promoting Donald Trump’s 20-point plan calling for a ceasefire, hostage exchange, and a framework for Gaza’s future. Amid optimism for peace, the Israeli shekel reached a three-year high, while the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange hit a new record.

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OPEC+ decision. The oil alliance announced it will raise production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, maintaining the same pace as in October. Despite oil prices falling more than 8% over the past week, the organization said market fundamentals remain stable. Russia pushed for a moderate increase due to production constraints, while Saudi Arabia favored a larger boost to regain market share. Analysts note that OPEC+ is walking a fine line between stabilizing prices and expanding its presence amid growing risks of oversupply by year’s end.

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Market reaction

Japan and Asia. Asian stock markets began the week on a high note: the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index hit an all-time record, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 4.8% after Sanae Takaichi, a pro-stimulus lawmaker, won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership race. Investors expect higher fiscal spending and tax cuts, driving up bond yields and pushing the yen down 1.7% to ¥150 per dollar. Analysts warn that markets are pricing in risks of higher public debt and potential currency volatility.

Gold. The metal soared above $3,900 per ounce, setting a new record high. The rally was fueled by the yen’s weakness, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. With Japan’s currency losing its safe-haven status, gold has become the main refuge for investors amid global uncertainty. KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer noted that the prolonged shutdown clouds the U.S. economic outlook, further boosting demand for gold.

Oil. Brent and WTI crude prices rose around 1.5%, to $65.4 and $61.7 per barrel respectively, reacting to OPEC’s cautious production increase. Markets viewed the move as a sign of restraint. Analysts believe the modest expansion will help stabilize prices, though weak demand and potential oversupply may limit further gains.

Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $125,000 as exchange balances fell to their lowest level since 2019. More than 114,000 BTC—worth roughly $14 billion—were withdrawn from centralized exchanges over the past two weeks, signaling a shift toward long-term holding and growing institutional demand. Analysts say the supply shortage is fueling bullish momentum, with a breakout above $126,500 potentially accelerating the rally.

Earlier, on October 2, global attention centered on disruptions at Munich Airport caused by drone activity, Hungary’s major LNG deal with France’s Engie, the resumption of direct flights between India and China, and Europe’s plans to curb Russia’s “shadow fleet.”

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