LVMH stock up 1% as Morgan Stanley raises target to €635

Highlights

- LVMH stock gained 1% as investor sentiment improved following a bullish upgrade from Morgan Stanley.

- Analyst Edouard Aubin raised the price target to €635, citing creative momentum at Dior, Celine, and a potential revival at Fendi.

- While upside potential remains, short-term performance will depend on Q3 earnings and macro stabilization.

LVMH is back in the Wall Street spotlight following a notable upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Analyst Edouard Aubin upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and raised his price target from €515 to €635, citing early signs of a creative resurgence across key brands. Aubin specifically pointed to Dior and Celine—LVMH’s second and third-largest Fashion & Leather Goods brands—as beneficiaries of refreshed creative leadership, which has already been well received by industry insiders. He also noted that Fendi is expected to appoint a new creative head, a move seen as injecting “much-needed newness” into the brand’s direction. This creative cycle is viewed as a strategic pivot that could reignite momentum across LVMH’s broader fashion portfolio.

Aubin projects that 2026 could mark a turning point for the group, when growth at Dior, Celine, and Fendi begins to complement Louis Vuitton’s ongoing strength. However, he cautioned that the recovery will be gradual, likely requiring at least one full fashion cycle before sales materially reflect the benefits. Importantly, he framed the current environment as a post-boom “hangover,” where the industry recalibrates after several years of outsized growth. In his view, the luxury sector as a whole is entering a three-year digestion period, where investor expectations will need to adjust downward before stabilizing.

Other analysts remain divided. Citi’s Thomas Chauvet maintained his Buy rating but lowered his price target from €635 to €630, still implying over 9% upside from current levels. In contrast, TD Cowen’s Oliver Chen reiterated his Hold rating and predicted a downside of over 13%, highlighting macro headwinds and valuation concerns. This divergence underscores the market's uncertainty over LVMH’s near-term trajectory: while creative rejuvenation is in motion, the full earnings impact remains speculative. Until clearer signals emerge from quarterly results, sentiment is likely to remain polarized around execution risks and the pacing of fashion-led recovery.

Price squeezes toward resistance

LVMH is trading near a short-term resistance zone around €575.50, having rebounded from a support range between €523 and €540 over recent weeks. The price action remains constrained within a broad consolidation channel, with upside capped by prior highs and downside supported by the €520–€530 zone. A breakout above €575.50 would signal bullish continuation and open the path toward €585–€590 in the near term. If the stock fails to clear resistance, a pullback to retest support remains likely.

Momentum indicators are mixed. On weekly and monthly timeframes, trend strength remains subdued, with moving averages flattening and Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in neutral territory. The short-term setup suggests potential for upside if buying volume confirms, but the broader structure still reflects caution among investors. The lack of directional conviction underscores the market’s wait-and-see stance ahead of the next earnings cycle.

LVMH stock price dynamics (August 2025 - October 2025). Source: TradingView

The current technical configuration implies a binary setup: a decisive break above €575.50 could trigger renewed momentum and shift sentiment toward a bullish bias, while rejection from this level may lead to renewed selling pressure. In that case, downside risks extend toward €523 initially, with further weakness exposing the €505–€510 range. The longer-term trend remains intact, but near-term volatility hinges on earnings catalysts and macroeconomic clarity.

Forecast points to cautious upside as LVMH eyes Q4 recovery

In the near term, LVMH appears positioned for a measured rebound. If technical resistance at €565 is broken and macro indicators remain stable, the stock could climb toward €585–€600 in Q4 2025, supported by investor rotation into luxury, earnings normalization, and brand-driven optimism. This upside scenario assumes stabilization in Asia and continued strength in European and Middle Eastern consumer demand.

A base-case outlook suggests a 5–8% price increase from current levels over the next two months, assuming valuation rerating continues and restructuring costs in wines & spirits remain contained. However, upside will be capped if Q3 earnings, expected in late October, show continued top-line weakness or further deterioration in key segments like fashion.

Morgan Stanley upgraded LVMH to “Overweight”, citing a creative renewal across its brand portfolio. The bank sees early signs that talent investments and brand repositioning are boosting demand, particularly in the U.S. and Japan.

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