Gold price prediction: XAU surges to $4,070 as investors seek safety amid global uncertainty

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Gold surges to $4,070

Highlights

- Gold hit a record $4,070 amid renewed global risk aversion.

- Fed rate cut bets and political instability boosted safe-haven inflows.

- Technical setup remains bullish with support around $4,016 and $3,960.

On the 4-hour chart, gold continues to trade within a clearly defined ascending channel that has guided price action since late August. Each dip within this structure has drawn strong buying interest, reinforcing a steady pattern of higher lows and higher highs. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,016 provides immediate dynamic support, while the 50-day EMA near $3,960 and the 100-day EMA around $3,875 form deeper levels of technical defense.

XAU price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Despite a sharp advance, momentum indicators suggest that the rally may still have room to extend. The relative strength index stands at 69, brushing against overbought conditions but not yet signaling exhaustion. Historically, similar levels have preceded additional gains before short-term corrections occur. A sustained break above $4,100 could pave the way for an advance toward $4,150, while a pullback to $4,016 or $3,960 would likely attract dip buyers within the broader uptrend.

Macro backdrop reinforces demand for gold

The macro environment remains highly supportive for bullion. President Trump’s trade threats against China, including talk of 100% tariffs, initially reignited fears of a new trade war before his weekend remarks struck a more conciliatory tone. Still, the uncertainty surrounding negotiations has continued to drive capital into safe assets. Beijing’s pledge to defend its rare earth export curbs and the prolonged U.S. government shutdown have further added to risk aversion.

At the same time, global monetary expectations continue to tilt dovish. Futures markets are now pricing in two consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before year-end, eroding the yield appeal of the U.S. dollar and strengthening the investment case for gold. Political instability in France and Japan, coupled with concerns about slowing global growth, have only magnified the appeal of hard assets.

Traders also took note of Trump’s declaration that the Gaza war has ended, a statement that brought momentary relief but failed to materially alter broader risk sentiment. For now, gold remains the primary refuge for investors seeking protection against policy and geopolitical volatility.

Outlook

In the coming sessions, the $4,100 mark will serve as the next key resistance level to watch. Clearing it could open the path to $4,150, while holding above $4,016 keeps the structure firmly bullish. A close below $3,875 would be needed to suggest a deeper correction.

Previously, we discussed gold’s continued dominance as the cornerstone of market safety, even as other assets attempted short-lived rebounds. That theme remains intact, with this week’s record high underscoring the depth of investor conviction. As long as global uncertainties persist and monetary policy trends remain dovish, the metal’s trajectory appears poised for further strength heading into year-end.

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