Pernod Ricard steadies above support, after strong Q1 and mixed technical signals

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Pernod Ricard climbs 0.52% today

Highlights

Pernod Ricard SA closed at $89.66, up 0.52%, trading above its 20-day moving average ($84.78) but below its 50-day ($91.56) and 200-day ($94.89) MAs.
Berenberg raised forecasts after Pernod Ricard's October 20, 2025, strong Q1, with Chinese and US macro trends continuing to impact sales performance.
With a projected weekly range of $83.92–$85.94, probability of a price increase is below 20%, indicating a baseline scenario of sideways-to-bearish movement.

Forecast upgrades as strategic focus counters shifting China-US demand

Berenberg updated its forecasts for Pernod Ricard following the company's stronger-than-expected first quarter on October 20, 2025. While not directly tied to immediate exchange rate shifts, this reflects the group's ongoing strategic positioning in the global spirits market. Broader economic trends in China and the US continue to impact sales performance for RI.

Conflicting momentum as short-term strength meets persistent seller dominance

The current price of Pernod Ricard ($89.66) is trading above its 20-day moving average ($84.78) but remains below the 50-day ($91.56) and well below the 200-day ($94.89) simple moving averages. This positioning suggests a short-term bullish bias but ongoing medium- and long-term seller pressure, with dynamic support near the Ichimoku Kijun at $86.64 and initial resistance at the MA-50 and the psychological $90 level. Momentum indicators provide a mixed picture. Daily MACD signals strong selling pressure, while a high ADX confirms a prevailing trend dominated by sellers. Oscillators such as RSI ($69.75) indicate near-overbought conditions, also echoed by Stoch RSI and CCI readings. BBP signals buyers hold the upper hand in intraday trading, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the upward move. Today’s price action shows a moderate gain, rising $0.46 or 0.52% after a small gap down at the open. The current price is at the daily high of the $88.42–$89.66 range, reflecting low intraday volatility but strong strength toward highs. Divergence among momentum and oscillator indicators points to conflicting short-term forces, with intraday performance leaning bullish and slightly contradicting some momentum signals.

Downside risk prevails as probability of rebound remains low

In the coming week, the expected price range is between $83.92 and $85.94, with the average near $84.93. The calculated probability of price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a decline much more likely. The baseline scenario is for the stock to move sideways within this corridor. A bullish scenario would see the price break and sustain above the $91.56 MA-50 resistance, while a bearish scenario unfolds if the price falls below the Ichimoku Kijun support at $86.64, potentially accelerating declines toward the weekly low near $83.92.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Pernod Ricard SA's price action as reflecting a short-term bullish reaction above support, but with clear longer-term technical and momentum headwinds. Despite a positive first quarter and recent analyst updates, Kharitonov believes the overall setup remains pressured by bearish medium- and long-term trends, and mixed signals from momentum indicators warrant skepticism. He maintains a cautious tactical outlook, noting that key support at $86.64 must hold to avoid accelerated downside risk. "Base case remains sideways-to-lower so long as the price struggles below $91.56 — I remain firmly defensive until buyers prove sustainability beyond that resistance."

Source of Data: RI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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