Joby Aviation stock rises 11% on eVTOL progress
On October 20, shares of Joby Aviation rose more than 11% to $17.40, as investors reacted positively to the company’s ongoing progress in manufacturing and certifying its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft — a key step toward large-scale commercial operations.
Earlier this month, Joby shares suffered their biggest one-day drop of the year after the company announced a public offering of 30.5 million shares priced at $16.85 each, aiming to raise over $500 million to fund eVTOL certification, production activities, and commercial readiness.
Following the offering, JOBY shares slid further below $15, and although today’s rally has yet to fully recover the monthly 5% loss, renewed optimism has returned to the stock.
JOBY stock daily chart. Source: TradingView
Positive comments from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) about Joby’s certification process, along with growing excitement around aviation innovation, appear to have strengthened investor confidence.
“Joby’s recent surge reflects a shift from speculative to operational optimism — if the company continues meeting its certification and production goals, we could see another double-digit gain next quarter,” said analyst Viktoras Karapetian.
Gradual ascent
Before the October slump, JOBY shares were among the market’s top performers, more than doubling in value since the start of the year. Key catalysts included the acquisition of Blade Air Mobility’s passenger division, joint ventures with ANA Holdings and L3Harris Technologies, increased production capacity to 24 aircraft per year, successful flight tests in Dubai and Japan, and participation in the Trump administration’s eVTOL integration pilot program.
However, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag noted that Joby’s execution has lagged behind the ambitious targets outlined during its IPO — securing FAA type certification by 2023, launching commercial operations in 2024, and scaling production by 2026.
The company originally projected $721 million in revenue by 2025, far above today’s consensus estimate of $4.1 million. With FAA certification now expected in 2026, expectations for production ramp-up and financial performance have been adjusted accordingly.
Liwag also highlighted that the highly regulated aviation environment remains a major challenge. The FAA’s certification process has taken longer than anticipated, extending Joby’s timeline by roughly three years. While investors have shown patience, the risk tied to FAA approval of Joby’s manufacturing process remains “underestimated.”
Joby must secure both a Production Certificate and an Airworthiness Certificate for each aircraft before commercial service can begin. Consequently, Morgan Stanley has cut its 2026–2033 delivery forecast by 40%, warning that the eVTOL passenger transport market — and Joby’s path within it — may be far from turbulence-free.
As we wrote, LVMH stock up 1% as Morgan Stanley raises target to €635
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