Nvidia stock jumps 7.5% on Trump pledge to discuss Blackwell with Xi Jinping

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Highlights

Nvidia stock jumped 7.5% as Trump announced plans to discuss Blackwell chip exports with China’s Xi Jinping.

Investors see the potential deal as a major catalyst for regaining access to a key AI market.

Technical indicators support further upside if policy momentum continues.

From a technical standpoint, NVDA is in a pronounced uptrend. The 50-day moving average has curled upward and currently sits near the $190 level, acting as dynamic support. The 200-day moving average is even further below, around $165, highlighting that the longer-term trend remains firmly bullish. The widening gap between these averages reflects strengthening momentum behind the current rally.

Current price action suggests a bullish breakout continuation pattern, with the latest rally on high volume adding conviction to the move. Key resistance lies ahead at the $215–$220 range, where price action stalled in mid-September. If this zone is cleared decisively, a rally toward $230 and potentially $250 could follow. On the downside, first support lies at $195, followed by a more critical level around $185–$190. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is approaching overbought territory, but not yet flashing extreme signals, implying more room for upside before a corrective phase sets in.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (August 2025 - October 2025). Source: TradingView.

The Bollinger Bands are also expanding, signaling increased volatility and reinforcing the view that the breakout has technical confirmation. For short-term traders, momentum indicators favor long positions as long as price remains above the $195 threshold. For medium-term investors, the technical structure still suggests buying on dips is the favored strategy until the trend shows signs of exhaustion or reversal.

Trump–Xi summit could open door to China Blackwell sales

Nvidia shares surged to all-time highs after President Donald Trump confirmed he will discuss Blackwell AI chip exports with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week. Speaking ahead of the highly anticipated summit, Trump described the chips as “super duper” and noted that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had recently showcased a Blackwell accelerator at the White House. The remarks signal that Blackwell exports may be directly on the negotiating table—reviving investor hopes for a policy shift that could unlock billions in lost revenue for Nvidia.

This potential reversal marks a sharp turn in U.S. policy, which has effectively banned Nvidia from selling its most advanced chips to China since 2022. Those rules—tightened multiple times—have slashed Nvidia’s share of the Chinese AI chip market from 95% to zero. Huang has repeatedly criticized the export restrictions, warning they are accelerating the rise of Chinese competitors such as Huawei. A downgraded Blackwell variant for China, previously floated by Trump, is now seen as a possible concession to de-escalate trade tensions while allowing Nvidia to regain partial access to its largest foreign market.

The rally was fueled by strong earnings, a bullish chip demand outlook, and a series of major deals announced at a high-profile Washington conference. Yet the clearest upside catalyst remains political: if Trump secures even limited export permissions during his talks with Xi, it would represent a seismic shift in U.S.–China tech relations—and a windfall for Nvidia’s forward earnings.

Bullish with conditional upside to $250

Given the confluence of technical strength and renewed China optimism, Nvidia’s short-term outlook has shifted bullish. In the base case scenario, Nvidia continues its upward march toward the $225–$230 range over the next 4–6 weeks, consolidating gains if export optimism is gradually priced in. Resistance at $215 will be the key test in the next leg. A successful retest of the $200 level as support would further validate the continuation of the uptrend.

In a more optimistic scenario, Nvidia could surge toward $250–$260 if concrete policy changes allow significant Blackwell exports to China. Strong Q4 guidance and renewed international demand could amplify the rally, especially if institutional buying resumes. A high-volume breakout past $230 would confirm this scenario. In that case, sentiment-driven momentum could temporarily push the stock into overbought territory before any meaningful pullback.

Nvidia has announced a €1 billion partnership with Deutsche Telekom to build an AI-focused data center in Germany, marking a major step in European AI infrastructure. The deal highlights Nvidia’s expanding role in industrial AI, with the company providing cutting-edge GPU hardware while Telekom manages cloud and security integration.

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