S&P 500 extends record run to third day as Fed decision and tech earnings take center stage

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S&P 500 extends record streak

Highlights

- S&P 500 closes at 6,890.88, marking its third consecutive record finish.

- AI optimism and mega-cap earnings drive renewed investor confidence.

- Traders await Fed rate decision and Powell’s remarks for forward guidance.

The S&P 500 remains firmly in an ascending channel that has defined its trend since early spring. The index is pressing against the upper boundary of this formation around 6,900–6,920, a region that has historically acted as short-term resistance. A decisive breakout above this level would signal continued bullish momentum and open the path toward 7,050–7,100.

S&P 500 price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The 20-day EMA at 6,723 and the 50-day EMA at 6,611 are offering robust support, while the 100-day EMA at 6,436 provides deeper structural backing. The Supertrend indicator at 6,676 also underscores a sustained bullish bias as long as prices stay above it. Momentum remains positive but not overstretched, with the index advancing steadily without entering overbought territory. However, the proximity to the channel top raises the risk of a temporary pause or mild profit-taking.

AI trade and earnings optimism fuel rally

Investors continue to favor technology as artificial intelligence themes dominate sentiment. Nvidia added another 3% in premarket trading after President Trump announced plans to discuss its Blackwell processors with China’s President Xi Jinping, reinforcing optimism around the semiconductor industry. Nvidia’s surge, with the company on track to become the first $5 trillion firm, continues to amplify broader index gains.

The “big three” tech companies—Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet—are all set to report earnings after the bell, setting the stage for potentially significant after-hours volatility. Premarket moves reflected optimism, with all three stocks trading higher. Strength extended to industrials as well: Caterpillar jumped 4.7% after strong quarterly sales, while Verizon rose 2% after reaffirming its 2025 outlook. On the other hand, CVS slipped more than 3% despite posting better-than-expected results, signaling selective investor sentiment.

Beyond corporate earnings, the macro backdrop remains favorable. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds range to 3.75%–4.00%. Markets have already priced in the move, leaving Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision comments as the key driver for near-term direction. Any hint of additional easing could provide further support for equities, while a more measured tone might temper expectations.

Outlook

The S&P 500 remains technically robust and fundamentally underpinned by record earnings, liquidity expectations, and AI-driven enthusiasm. A confirmed breakout above 6,920 could extend gains toward 7,050 in the near term, while rejection at this level may prompt a pullback toward 6,720–6,750.

As discussed in previous analyses, the index’s momentum remains tied to mega-cap technology performance and Fed policy shifts. With traders awaiting both the central bank’s decision and critical earnings reports, the next 48 hours will likely determine whether the rally consolidates or accelerates into new territory.

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