Iran sets new conditions for full Hormuz reopening

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Iran sets new conditions

Highlights

Tehran has connected full maritime access to conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
Hormuz remains accessible through a restricted temporary corridor rather than normal traffic.
Vessel movements are still dramatically below pre-war levels.
Washington and Tehran are moving further apart over the basis for renewed negotiations.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said an understanding with Washington over Hormuz would have to address military operations across the region, according to CNBC. Tehran's conditions include ending the Gaza war, an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and a halt to attacks on Syria, effectively turning negotiations over maritime access into a broader regional security dispute.

Limited passage, not a full reopening

Commercial vessels have regained some access to Hormuz, but the current arrangement remains far from normal operations. Iran is permitting traffic through a temporary, limited corridor while negotiations continue over a more durable system.

Oman has emerged as a key intermediary. Tehran and Muscat have been discussing a temporary shipping route alongside efforts to remove mines from the waterway. The talks offer a practical mechanism for keeping some traffic moving even as the political dispute remains unresolved.

The gap between limited access and normal shipping is stark. Kpler data showed just five vessels passing through Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the conflict began in February, roughly 130 ships crossed the waterway each day.

U.S. forces, meanwhile, have been working to maintain commercial transit. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said American forces had helped facilitate the movement of approximately 1,500 commercial vessels and 750 million barrels of crude in recent months. Mine-clearing operations have also helped keep international shipping lanes accessible.

June framework loses ground

The diplomatic obstacle is becoming as significant as the physical disruption to shipping. The Trump administration has repeatedly told intermediaries that it does not want to return to the preliminary agreement reached with Iran in June. Trump is instead giving the administration's economic pressure strategy more time to produce results.

Washington this week intensified that approach with a campaign aimed at increasing the cost of doing business with Iran. The shift changes the calculations surrounding Hormuz: Tehran is demanding regional concessions before restoring normal access, while the U.S. is attempting to strengthen its negotiating position through economic pressure.

That leaves Oman and other mediators trying to bridge positions that have moved further apart since June.

Oil markets face a persistent Hormuz risk

The consequences extend directly to energy markets. Hormuz is a major maritime corridor for Gulf oil exports, and the difference between five daily vessel crossings and the roughly 130 recorded before the war illustrates how far shipping remains from normal.

Oil prices edged lower Friday despite the continuing uncertainty. Brent crude stood at $88.19 a barrel, down 0.31%, while WTI traded at $83.05, down 0.57%, according to the latest markets.

The declines suggest traders are giving some weight to the temporary shipping corridor and mine-clearing progress. But limited passage does not remove the underlying risk. With Tehran tying full access to several regional conflicts and Washington stepping back from the June framework, the oil market remains exposed to renewed disruption along one of the world's most important energy routes.

As we previously reported, Kuwait and Qatar ramp up oil shipments through Hormuz.

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