U.S. intelligence warns of Iran plot against Americans as Middle East risks rise

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US intel warns on Iran plot

Highlights

A U.S. intelligence memo dated October 23 warns Iran is advancing lethal plots against U.S. citizens in the Middle East and other countries.
State Department ordered partial evacuation of Saudi Arabia embassy staff amid rising Houthi attacks; further U.S. staffing cuts in the region are possible.
Brent crude rose as much as 3.8% to $117.45 a barrel Friday, settling at $116.72, as Middle East security threats drive oil markets higher.

Intelligence warning and embassy security

As reported by Financial Times, citing Axios, a memo dated October 23 from director of national intelligence Jay Clayton to U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio warns that Iran is increasing efforts to target U.S. personnel through multiple channels, according to a U.S. official. The memo says lethal plotting against U.S. citizens has reached advanced stages in the Middle East and in certain other countries.

Clayton also writes that intelligence and analysis on Iranian efforts to target U.S. government officials are relevant to more people than are currently cleared to receive the information. The warning comes after the State Department orders some personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia earlier this week, citing rising Houthi attacks.

A U.S. official says the new intelligence could lead to further reductions in government staffing in the region. The official adds that threats from Houthi attacks and alleged Iranian terror plots are informing decisions on embassy staffing adjustments where operations are already reduced.

Regional escalation and oil market impact

Iran-backed Houthi militants are increasing attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Tehran's forces are expanding strikes on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In the early hours of Saturday, a Saudi-led coalition says its air defences intercept and destroy a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis towards Riyadh, after civil defence alerts are issued for Riyadh, Wadi Al-Dawasir and Najran.

Oil markets are also reacting to the renewed security risks. Brent crude climbs as much as 3.8% to $117.45 a barrel in New York trading on Friday before settling at $116.72, the first time since April that prices hit $117, as investors weigh the risk of a fresh escalation in President Donald Trump's war on Iran and tighter global oil inventories.

Trump says he might launch a new bombing campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, and tells a Florida rally on Friday night that the U.S. could begin another military operation against the Islamic republic. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also pushing to resume large-scale strikes on Iran, while U.S. ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz says this week that Washington could still be in a stalemate with Tehran a year from now.

Our earlier coverage of the WTO’s assessment of the Middle East conflict explained how repeated disruptions are forcing companies to redesign supply chains and shipping routes, with some changes likely to persist even if fighting eases. The WTO projected a sharp 2024 contraction in the region’s trade, warning that higher-cost “resilient” alternatives are increasingly viewed as necessary amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

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