Poland economy growth forecast holds as EBRD sees investment support in 2026

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Poland economy growth forecast

Highlights

EBRD maintains Poland's growth forecast at 3.6 per cent for 2025 and 3.5 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026, citing resilient performance.
Gross fixed capital formation records its strongest expansion since 2023 in early 2026 as EU Recovery and Resilience Facility–funded projects accelerate, supporting investment-led growth.
Despite robust economic activity, Poland's 2026 budget deficit is expected to exceed the 6.8 per cent target, keeping the country under the EU's excessive deficit procedure.

Forecast outlook backed by investment and EU funds

As reported by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, it leaves its growth forecast for Poland unchanged from its June projections and says the economy continues to show resilience. The bank says growth reaches 3.6 per cent in 2025 and remains strong at 3.5 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026.

Capital spending is providing a major pillar of support. Gross fixed capital formation records its strongest expansion since 2023 in the first half of 2026 as projects financed through the European Union Recovery and Resilience Facility accelerate ahead of programme deadlines.

Inflationary pressures also remain contained despite external shocks. Temporary fuel-price measures through the end of August help limit price growth, while inflation stands at 3.4 per cent in August 2026, within the National Bank of Poland's tolerance range, and the policy rate remains unchanged since the last cut in March.

External risks and fiscal strain shape the outlook

Poland is also expected to gain additional support from defence-related investment after securing the largest allocation under the European Union's Security Action for Europe instrument. The government expects more than 80 per cent of that spending to take place domestically, adding to economic activity.

At the same time, the outlook faces downside risks from weaker euro area demand, persistently high energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East and pressure on public finances. Despite solid growth, Poland has the EU's second-highest general government deficit and remains under the bloc's excessive deficit procedure, with the 2026 budget gap expected to exceed the 6.8 per cent target as spending outpaces tax revenue.

The broader regional picture also becomes more difficult since June, with the EBRD citing higher energy costs, tighter financing conditions and disruptions to international trade and logistics. For the bank, that shift warrants a downgrade to its aggregate 2026 growth forecast for the economies where it operates.

The EBRD remains a major institutional investor in Poland. In 2025, it invests more than 1.35 billion euros across 44 projects, with 74 per cent of financing directed to renewable energy, energy storage, energy efficiency and sustainable infrastructure.

Our earlier article on Italy’s budget deficit dispute with ISTAT examined how confirmed deficit figures kept Rome exposed to the EU’s excessive deficit procedure and intensified political tensions over fiscal credibility. We noted that the government challenged the statistics bureau’s methodology, while ISTAT defended its independence and adherence to European standards—highlighting how fragile public finances can become a major economic and institutional risk factor.

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