IMF backs Niger ECF review, proposes new 38-month lending program

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IMF backs Niger ECF review

Highlights

IMF staff reached agreement with Niger on a new 38-month ECF program worth SDR 150.02 million (about $203 million), pending Executive Board approval.
The new ECF-supported program aims to consolidate macro stability, with a Board review expected in December 2026 and an initial disbursement of SDR 26.3244 million (about $36 million) upon approval.
IMF forecasts Niger’s economy to grow 7 percent in 2026 and 6.7 percent in 2027, with a fiscal deficit projected at 3.4 percent of GDP in 2026 due to reconstruction and social support.

Program terms and board timetable

As reported by the International Monetary Fund, staff-level agreement has been reached with Niger on the tenth and final review of its existing Extended Credit Facility, as well as on the policies and reforms underpinning a new 38-month ECF-supported program. The IMF said the proposed new arrangement carries access to SDR 150.02 million, equivalent to 114 percent of quota, or about U.S. $203 million, and remains subject to Executive Board approval.

A Board meeting is expected in early December 2026. Completion of the review and approval of the new request would allow a disbursement of SDR 26.3244 million, about U.S. $36 million, to help cover Niger’s external financing needs and support reform implementation.

The new program is designed to consolidate macroeconomic stability, preserve reform gains and support the government’s 2025-29 development strategy. IMF staff said the plan focuses on strengthening fiscal capacity, safeguarding debt sustainability, reinforcing financial stability and promoting more inclusive private-sector-led growth.

Growth outlook and fiscal pressures

IMF staff expects Niger’s economy to grow 7 percent in 2026 and 6.7 percent in 2027, driven mainly by agriculture and the extractive sector. Over the medium term, growth is projected to average about 6.1 percent, although the outlook remains exposed to security challenges and climate shocks.

Average inflation is projected at negative 2.5 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027. The IMF said higher crude oil prices linked to the war in the Middle East are strengthening Niger’s fiscal and external balances, while higher transport costs are adding pressure on inflation and vulnerable households.

The fiscal deficit is projected at 3.4 percent of GDP in 2026, reflecting reconstruction spending after last year’s natural disasters and support for households hit by higher food and fuel prices. According to the IMF, Niger’s authorities are using part of stronger oil revenue to rebuild fiscal buffers while maintaining prudent borrowing policies and prioritizing concessional financing and grants.

Our earlier report on Chad’s sovereign rating highlighted how the country’s weak fiscal position, high debt burden, and security risks continue to constrain its credit profile. At the same time, we noted that stronger oil production and higher prices were expected to support a gradual improvement in growth and budget metrics, even as structural vulnerabilities left the economy exposed to shocks.

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