IMF says Guyana sustains rapid growth as oil output lifts fiscal and external buffers

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Guyana sustains rapid growth

Highlights

Guyana's real GDP grew over 19% in 2025, driven by oil GDP up 21% and oil production exceeding 900,000 barrels per day, with broad economic expansion continuing in early 2026.
IMF reports gross international reserves reached U.S.$1.4 billion and the Natural Resource Fund accumulated U.S.$3.3 billion by end-2025, amid a widening current account surplus.
Overall fiscal deficit narrowed to 5.5% of GDP in 2025 due to strong oil revenues, with IMF expecting upward pressure in 2026 from transfers and subsidies before improvement as new oil fields launch.

Growth outlook and policy assessment

As reported by the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board has concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation with Guyana and says the economy continues to expand rapidly on the back of strong oil production and resilient non-oil activity.

Real GDP grew by more than 19% in 2025, with oil GDP rising 21% and non-oil GDP up 14%, while oil production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day. The IMF says these trends broadly continue in the first half of 2026, supported by stronger labor market conditions and private credit growth.

Average inflation remains contained at 3.3% in 2025 but edges up in 2026 because of higher global energy and food prices. The Fund says the external position strengthens further, with the current account surplus widening, gross international reserves reaching about U.S.$1.4 billion, and the Natural Resource Fund accumulating about U.S.$3.3 billion by the end of 2025.

The IMF says prudent macroeconomic policies continue to support growth and that available indicators do not point to clear overheating or competitiveness pressures. Still, it says strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate measures warrant close monitoring as oil output and public investment continue to rise.

Fiscal strategy, financial stability and diversification

Strong oil revenues help narrow the overall fiscal deficit to 5.5% of GDP in 2025 even as large public investments continue, according to the IMF. The Fund expects the deficit to widen somewhat in 2026 because of transfers and electricity subsidies before improving in 2027 as new oil fields come onstream and fiscal and external positions strengthen.

The IMF says a broader medium- and long-term fiscal strategy would help preserve sustainability and intergenerational equity, with the non-oil primary balance serving as a possible operational target. It adds that if oil prices remain persistently high, a larger share of additional revenue should be saved, while spending should stay focused on productivity-enhancing projects and targeted support for vulnerable groups.

On monetary and financial policy, the Fund says liquidity should be managed through foreign exchange operations, treasury bills and reserve requirements to keep money growth aligned with nominal non-oil GDP growth. It says the banking system remains well capitalized and liquid, but concentration risks, rapid housing market growth and cybersecurity standards require continued attention.

The IMF also points to governance and diversification priorities, including stronger public sector transparency, better audit capacity in oil and gas, and continued work on anti-money laundering and anti-corruption frameworks. It says the Gas-to-Energy project, climate-resilience investment and improvements in official statistics should support competitiveness, service delivery and longer-term non-oil growth.

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