Global FDI values rise as new project activity weakens, UNCTAD says

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Global FDI rises, outlook fragile

Highlights

Global FDI values rise 37% over the average half-year 2025 level, driven by developed economies, as cross-border M&A value jumps 57% to $494 billion despite deal count falling 23%.
FDI inflows to developed economies surge over 70% in the first half of 2026, with Benelux countries and the U.S.—where AI sectors capture over 40% of announced greenfield value—showing marked gains.
FDI flows to developing markets rise just 8% and greenfield project announcements drop over 20%, while renewable project finance falls one-third and data centre investment declines by $32 billion.

UNCTAD data shows uneven investment recovery

As reported by UNCTAD, citing UN Trade and Development, its latest Global Investment Trends Monitor shows foreign direct investment increased by 37% versus the average half-year level in 2025, driven largely by developed economies.

The value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions rises by 57% to $494 billion in the first nine months of 2026, but the number of deals falls by 23%, indicating that larger transactions are lifting totals without signaling a broad-based recovery. Announcements of new greenfield projects decline by 15%, while international project finance deals fall by 11%.

FDI flows to developed economies rise by more than 70% in the first half of the year compared with the average half-year level in 2025. The increase largely reflects fluctuations in financial flows through the Benelux countries, Belgium, the Kingdom of the Netherlands and Luxembourg, as well as a near-doubling of inflows to the U.S. In the U.S., artificial intelligence-related sectors account for more than 40% of announced greenfield investment value, underscoring the growing weight of strategic technology investment.

Developing markets face sharper pressure

FDI flows to developing economies increase by 8% against the average half-year level in 2025, but underlying activity weakens as greenfield project announcements fall by more than one fifth. The number of investment projects supporting the Sustainable Development Goals also declines by more than 25% in developing countries.

Renewable energy project finance activity drops by about a third in developing economies, compared with a 4% decline in developed economies. The value of announced greenfield investment in data centres in developing economies falls by $32 billion, suggesting further concentration of digital infrastructure spending in high-income markets.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is adding to cost pressures and uncertainty. Greenfield project announcements in West Asia fall by 52%, while tourism projects worldwide decline by 28% and transportation and storage projects by 22% in the first half of 2026 from the same period in 2025. Outward project finance investment by Gulf Cooperation Council investors more than halves in the second quarter from both a year earlier and the average of the previous five years, while domestic investment more than triples year on year, mostly because of a nearly $55 billion urban district project announced by Dubai-based developer Emaar.

The findings come ahead of the World Investment Forum 2026 in Doha, Qatar, from 25 to 27 October, where more than 5,000 participants from governments, businesses and international organizations are set to discuss investment for development under the theme, "Investing in the future."

In our earlier article on supply-chain shifts amid geopolitical conflict, we noted that companies are redesigning shipping routes and rebuilding supply chains for greater resilience, even at higher cost. We also highlighted that war-related disruptions in the Middle East were weighing on regional trade, while demand for AI-related products was helping support global trade growth despite the uncertainty from conflicts and tariffs.

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