UNCTAD report flags uneven fuel-price surge across developing economies

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UNCTAD flags uneven fuel surge

Highlights

UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report 2026 notes Brent crude exceeds $120 per barrel before retreating to $70 in June, then surpasses $100 through end-2026 futures.
Diesel prices surge 82.7% in Nigeria, 73.6% in Lebanon, 66.7% in Peru; gasoline jumps 50.7% in Myanmar and 48.1% in Nigeria between 23 February and 31 August 2026.
Net fuel imports in 2023 equal about 25% of Cabo Verde's GDP and nearly 20% of Lebanon's, intensifying import and fiscal pressures.

Report tracks price swings through 2026

As reported by UN Trade and Development, its Trade and Development Report 2026 shows that the latest oil shock is producing sharply different fuel-price increases across economies, with developing markets facing the steepest rises.

The report says the Middle East conflict disrupts energy supplies and sends oil prices sharply higher. Brent rises above $120 a barrel, falls towards $70 in June, then climbs above $100 again, leaving only brief relief for businesses buying fuel.

By September, futures contracts for delivery through the end of 2026 are also priced above $100 a barrel, more than $30 above pre-conflict levels. That pricing suggests oil remains expensive through the end of 2026, potentially keeping fuel and transport costs elevated for companies and households.

Among the economies cited, diesel prices rise about 82.7% in Nigeria, 73.6% in Lebanon and 66.7% in Peru between 23 February and 31 August 2026. Gasoline prices also increase sharply, with Myanmar recording a 50.7% rise, while Nigeria posts a 48.1% increase in gasoline that is still smaller than its diesel jump.

Import dependence raises household and trade risks

Higher fuel prices are also feeding into broader household spending because diesel powers trucks that transport food and other goods. If businesses pass on those transport costs, consumers can face higher shopping bills even if they do not buy fuel directly.

The burden is heavier in economies that depend on imported fuel, because rising oil prices increase the cost of securing needed energy supplies. UNCTAD says net fuel imports in 2023 were equivalent to about a quarter of Cabo Verde's GDP and nearly a fifth of Lebanon's, while Mauritania and Liberia each exceeded 15%.

A larger fuel import bill leaves less capacity to pay for other essential imports, including food, medicines and equipment. For governments already operating with limited fiscal room, the report says that also reduces their ability to cushion households against rising living costs.

In our earlier article on surging oil shipping costs, we explained how conflict-related risks and rerouting around key chokepoints sent tanker and insurance rates sharply higher, turning freight into a much larger share of the delivered oil price. We also noted that these elevated transport costs can filter through from the pump into broader consumer prices, with import-dependent markets and Asian buyers facing the steepest near-term strain.

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