DRC secures IMF staff deal on program reviews as Ebola and budget pressures mount

Traders Union
All News
Financial Institutions
DRC IMF review agreement

Highlights

IMF reaches staff-level agreement with DRC on ECF and RSF reviews, with approval requests for higher access and fiscal deficit ceiling relaxation for 2026–2027 pending board consideration.
DRC's real GDP growth set to remain above 5 percent despite Ebola and mine disruptions; inflation projected to approach 9 percent by December 2026 with policy rate at 12.5 percent as of October 2026.
IMF urges DRC to accelerate approved revenue measures, control wage growth, and further modernize public financial management amid budget pressures from Ebola and armed conflict in eastern DRC.

Program review and financing requests

As reported by the International Monetary Fund, an IMF team led by Calixte Ahokpossi reaches a staff-level agreement with the DRC authorities on the fourth review under the Extended Credit Facility and the third review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

The IMF says economic growth slows somewhat in 2026 as the Ebola outbreak and operational challenges in two large mines begin to affect activity, though real GDP growth is still expected to remain above 5 percent this year and over the medium term. Year-on-year inflation is projected to rise to close to 9 percent by the end of December 2026, driven by higher petroleum product and food costs.

The Central Bank of Congo keeps its policy rate unchanged at 12.5 percent in October 2026, while the IMF mission urges policymakers to remain ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation expectations become unanchored amid uncertainty linked to Ebola and the Middle East war.

The government also requests a relaxation of fiscal deficit ceilings for 2026 and 2027 and seeks higher IMF access under both the ECF and RSF. The Fund says the added RSF support is intended to help mitigate macro-fiscal risks from health shocks by strengthening epidemic preparedness and response, and those requests are set to go to the Executive Board for consideration and approval.

Fiscal strains and reform agenda

The IMF says the armed conflict in eastern DRC and the Ebola response are weighing on the budget, even though the domestic fiscal deficit stays below the programmed ceiling at end-June 2026. It adds that implementation challenges emerge for the rest of the year, increasing pressure to accelerate revenue measures already approved in the 2026 budget and to contain the wage bill and lower-priority spending.

Beyond the near-term budget strain, the mission calls for further modernization of public financial management to improve transparency and efficiency. Its recommendations include limiting emergency spending procedures, expanding decentralized spending authorization to more ministries, completing the Treasury Single Account rollout, and rationalizing special funds and public entities under general public accounting rules.

The IMF also welcomes the DRC’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list, saying the move reflects progress in anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing controls. It urges the authorities to build on that momentum by strengthening governance, fighting corruption, improving the business climate, and advancing climate-related reforms including the revised Forest Code, an updated public-private partnership law, and tighter environmental and social compliance in mining.

In our earlier article on sovereign borrowing risks in a higher-rate environment, we noted that persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated public spending can erode fiscal headroom and make refinancing more expensive. We also highlighted that emerging and frontier markets are often more exposed because debt-service costs are high relative to limited revenue bases, while energy and food price shocks can add to inflation and budget pressure.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.