Michael A. Gayed: Only 8 to 12 percent of yen carry trade unwound

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Daria Chernytska

06.03.2026

Michael A. Gayed: Only 8 to 12 percent of yen carry trade unwound — Yen carry trade unwinding slows

Speculation over the yen carry trade’s unwinding has intensified as Michael A. Gayed provides fresh estimates. According to Gayed, speculative futures have seen around 85 percent of positions cleared, but this is not representative of the full picture.

Hedge fund forwards, Japanese insurers and pensions, and FX swaps have unwound significantly less—at roughly 20 percent, 5 percent, and 3 percent, respectively. Overall, the weighted average indicates that only 8 to 12 percent of the total yen carry trade has been unwound, with the more visible layers largely flushed out. Gayed highlights that a structural layer exceeding $4 trillion remains barely touched.

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These latest figures underscore the complexity beneath headline unwinding numbers, paralleling Gayed’s earlier skepticism regarding established narratives—such as his examination of Bitcoin’s viability as a hedge. In a similar vein, his perspectives on the necessity for investors to understand income engineering provide further context to the intricate dynamics currently unfolding in the yen carry trade.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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