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Shutdown last fall disrupted inflation data, Ben Casselman says
The year-over-year U.S. inflation rate remains subdued due to lingering effects from the government shutdown last fall.
Ben Casselman explains that the shutdown disrupted data collection and led the Bureau of Labor Statistics to assume rents did not rise at all in October. This assumption continues to affect official inflation readings, keeping them lower than they might otherwise be.
These continued distortions in inflation data underscore the complexities facing policymakers as they interpret economic signals in the wake of administrative disruptions. The interplay between atypical price trends and broader labor market shifts has also been evident in Casselman’s analysis of the gradual rise in the U.S. unemployment rate, highlighting the challenges of capturing true economic momentum amid evolving statistical baselines.
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