Alexander Stahel: Gulf oil exports face storage and supply headwinds

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23.03.2026

Alexander Stahel: Gulf oil exports face storage and supply headwinds — Gulf oil exports under pressure

Alexander Stahel questions current oil production and export levels from major Gulf producers. He points out that Iraq may not be reaching 1.5 million barrels per day given apparent storage constraints, while UAE exports via Fujairah are now well below 1 million barrels per day. Stahel also notes that Saudi exports are running at 3.5 million barrels per day on a 7-day rolling basis, with 0.8 million barrels per day of products leaving the Red Sea, suggesting that maintaining an 8.5 million barrel per day production rate is unsustainable.

His analysis highlights growing pressures and potential limits on oil flow in the region.

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Stahel's findings arise amid recent volatility in regional crude benchmarks, reminiscent of the dramatic surge in the Murban crude premium at Fujairah port. Shifting dynamics in Iraqi supply have also drawn attention, mirroring prior observations on the decline in Iraq's oil output, further underscoring the mounting pressures confronting Gulf producers as export constraints persist.

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