Energy Policy and Commodity Markets by Alexander Stahel
Alexander Stahel is founder of Burggraben Holding AG, a Swiss asset management firm with a focus on structural commodity plays and energy geopolitics. Since 2020, his Substack newsletter The Commodity Compass has grown to over 2,800 paid subscribers, offering in-depth analysis on energy pricing, natural resource cycles, and currency devaluation narratives.
Stahel’s thesis on digital commodities includes tokenized oil certificates and blockchain-integrated mining supply chains, featured in Bloomberg and Reuters energy outlook briefings. In Q1 2025, Stahel presented at the London Tokenized Markets Forum, advocating for programmable settlement in cross-border LNG trade using Hedera and Avalanche-based contracts.
Stahel leverages traditional hard asset insights to shape understanding of digital scarcity, token inflation risks, and inflation-hedged digital instruments.
Alexander Stahel: China faces unprecedented balance sheet recession affecting households and companies
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that China is undergoing a balance sheet recession on a scale not seen before globally. The concept, originally ...
Financial markets brace for volatility, Alexander Stahel warns
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, provides a comprehensive overview of foreign exchange and overall risk dynamics in financial markets. Stahel highlights the ...
Alexander Stahel: Middle East oil freight costs reach $30 a barrel
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that oil shipping via the so-called Hormuz Shuttle has resumed but tankers are not returning to the region, creating ...
$28 pricing to hire ships for Basrah Heavy pickup, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, describes a $28 discount to Dubai for Iraqi Basrah Heavy crude, noting that the offer is based on FOB Iraq terms. He explains ...
Alexander Stahel: Poland enacts energy windfall tax as Europe faces refining shortfall
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Poland has implemented a new energy windfall tax, adding to recent measures across Europe. Stahel highlights the ...
Iran set to lose most oil income by December, Alexander Stahel predicts
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, warns that Iran will have lost substantially all of its oil income by December. The observation is based on Iran's slow ...
Alexander Stahel: Gold Fields' $27.2 billion bid for Northern Star rejected
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Gold Fields' unsolicited bid of $27.2 billion for Northern Star was rejected. Stahel notes that the offer included ...
Oracle commits to investor payouts even if data center lacks power, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Oracle has committed to guarantee payouts to investors for a major New Mexico data center project, even if it fails ...
Alexander Stahel: Nscale hid ByteDance ties in IPO despite $2025 sales reliance
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, states that Nscale, an Nvidia-backed AI cloud provider, concealed a significant relationship with ByteDance in its IPO filings, ...
Tanker rates reach $33 per barrel for Persian Gulf shipments, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that crude oil tanker rates from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman have reached an all-time high of $33 per barrel ...
Alexander Stahel: Vitol CEO warns fuel market is very tight with low stockpiles
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Vitol CEO Russell Hardy described the current fuel market as "pretty, pretty tight and inflexible." Hardy noted ...
U.S. 10-year yield rises to 5 percent with $30 trillion Treasury debt, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, compares the current U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and national debt to their levels in 2006. The yield is back at 5 percent, ...
Alexander Stahel: Seaborne crude imports in China remain below baseline as shipping rates jump
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that seaborne crude oil imports in China are holding at a reduced 6-7 million barrels per day, which is 2-3 million ...
Diesel supplies remain tight with refineries struggling, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, observes growing pressure in oil product markets. Stahel notes that while crude oil is available, diesel—described as the ...
Alexander Stahel: Citadel energy trading unit generated $30 billion, Griffin estimates
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that trading natural gas and other energy assets has been one of the most profitable areas within Citadel's broader ...
Market saw misstep in price handling, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights investor Stan Druckenmiller's critique that market reaction exposed a major policy error. According to Druckenmiller, ...
Alexander Stahel: Spending on Fable 5 slows at 11 percent of Anthropic tool outlay
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that outlay on Fable 5, Anthropic’s largest and most expensive model, has reached just 11 percent of total spending on ...
Body punches to U.S. economy from energy crisis, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights concerns in the U.S. energy sector. In a statement from Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, the current ...
Alexander Stahel: Chinese home prices keep falling despite government intervention
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that Chinese home prices are falling month after month, even as the government takes steps to intervene in the market. ...
Value migration in oil sector often missed, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, criticizes superficial commentary and self-praise on social media, warning that such attitudes cause many to overlook the ongoing ...
Alexander Stahel: Saudi crude exports plunge as Red Sea route tightens
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Saudi crude exports have dropped 74 percent. He notes the narrowing of the Red Sea escape route, forcing surviving ...
