Energy Policy and Commodity Markets by Alexander Stahel
Alexander Stahel is founder of Burggraben Holding AG, a Swiss asset management firm with a focus on structural commodity plays and energy geopolitics. Since 2020, his Substack newsletter The Commodity Compass has grown to over 2,800 paid subscribers, offering in-depth analysis on energy pricing, natural resource cycles, and currency devaluation narratives.
Stahel’s thesis on digital commodities includes tokenized oil certificates and blockchain-integrated mining supply chains, featured in Bloomberg and Reuters energy outlook briefings. In Q1 2025, Stahel presented at the London Tokenized Markets Forum, advocating for programmable settlement in cross-border LNG trade using Hedera and Avalanche-based contracts.
Stahel leverages traditional hard asset insights to shape understanding of digital scarcity, token inflation risks, and inflation-hedged digital instruments.
Disruptions in key factors may lead to abrupt market shift, Alexander Stahel warns
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, said that many factors have come together to create the current market boom. He believes that disruptions in just one or two of ...
Alexander Stahel: Tech sector rotation may challenge Anthropic pricing
A shift within the technology sector could make it harder for Anthropic to secure funding at the anticipated price, according to Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund. ...
Investors adjust slowly to pressures on Google Search, Alexander Stahel notes
Google’s core Search business is feeling pressure, but Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, observed that the more surprising aspect is how long it took investors ...
Alexander Stahel: Shell company borrows $63 billion to buy Broadcom and Google-designed chips
A shell company is borrowing $63 billion to purchase chips designed by Broadcom and Google, referred to as tensor processing units. Alexander Stahel reported that Anthropic's lease payments are ...
CATL starts earnings season with a big miss, Alexander Stahel notes
Chinese earnings estimates have sharply declined, with battery giant CATL beginning the third-quarter earnings season with a significant miss. Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO of Commodity ...
Alexander Stahel: CCC-rated junk yields reach highest levels since 2020 amid costly refinancing
Yields on CCC-rated junk bonds have reached their highest point since 2020, with borrowing costs now at 16 percent. As cheap debt matures, refinancing is increasingly difficult, resulting in a ...
India bolsters rupee with extraordinary dollar interventions, Alexander Stahel notes
India is deploying tens of billions of dollars and engaging in extraordinary market interventions to support the rupee as the currency faces pressure from elevated oil prices and investor ...
Alexander Stahel: Two customers make up 20% of Anthropic H1 2026 revenue
Two customers accounted for 20% of Anthropic's H1 2026 revenue, or $3.26 billion. Alexander Stahel reported that while the names of these customers are not confirmed, VentureBeat points to two ...
Copper supercycle is unsustainable given China and Europe limitations, Alexander Stahel argues
Alexander Stahel, Alexander Stahel of Commodity Private Equity Fund, expressed skepticism about the prospects for a copper supercycle. He argued that China is structurally too weak to support such ...
Alexander Stahel: Debt and equity investors express concerns about CoreWeave’s financing costs
Debt and equity investors are expressing apprehension about financial aspects linked to CoreWeave. Equity investors are worried about CoreWeave’s cost of debt, while debt investors are concerned ...
Gold correction warning issued as oil leads commodities, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO of Commodity Private Equity Fund, said that oil continues to be the leading commodity. He added that his recent warning regarding a second correction in gold may ...
Alexander Stahel: China faces unprecedented balance sheet recession affecting households and companies
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that China is undergoing a balance sheet recession on a scale not seen before globally. The concept, originally ...
Financial markets brace for volatility, Alexander Stahel warns
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, provides a comprehensive overview of foreign exchange and overall risk dynamics in financial markets. Stahel highlights the ...
Alexander Stahel: Middle East oil freight costs reach $30 a barrel
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that oil shipping via the so-called Hormuz Shuttle has resumed but tankers are not returning to the region, creating ...
$28 pricing to hire ships for Basrah Heavy pickup, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, describes a $28 discount to Dubai for Iraqi Basrah Heavy crude, noting that the offer is based on FOB Iraq terms. He explains ...
Alexander Stahel: Poland enacts energy windfall tax as Europe faces refining shortfall
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Poland has implemented a new energy windfall tax, adding to recent measures across Europe. Stahel highlights the ...
Iran set to lose most oil income by December, Alexander Stahel predicts
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, warns that Iran will have lost substantially all of its oil income by December. The observation is based on Iran's slow ...
Alexander Stahel: Gold Fields' $27.2 billion bid for Northern Star rejected
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Gold Fields' unsolicited bid of $27.2 billion for Northern Star was rejected. Stahel notes that the offer included ...
Oracle commits to investor payouts even if data center lacks power, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, reports that Oracle has committed to guarantee payouts to investors for a major New Mexico data center project, even if it fails ...
Alexander Stahel: Nscale hid ByteDance ties in IPO despite $2025 sales reliance
Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, states that Nscale, an Nvidia-backed AI cloud provider, concealed a significant relationship with ByteDance in its IPO filings, ...
Tanker rates reach $33 per barrel for Persian Gulf shipments, Alexander Stahel notes
Alexander Stahel, founder and CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, highlights that crude oil tanker rates from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman have reached an all-time high of $33 per barrel ...
