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Stocks rallied 3 percent at the start of the week on headlines related to a potential Iran ceasefire, according to Michael A. Gayed.
By Thursday, the outlook shifted as former President Trump pledged to escalate strikes, resulting in oil prices surging 11 percent—the biggest single-day move for oil since 2020. Despite snapping a five-week losing streak, Gayed highlighted significant dispersion within sectors, with energy shares falling 4 percent during the same week that technology companies posted gains.
Earlier in the month, Gayed observed that the Russell 2000 index declined over 4 percent in a week as risks grew for small-cap stocks. He also estimated that only 8 to 12 percent of the total yen carry trade has unwound, leaving a large structural position in place. These previous calls highlight Gayed’s ongoing focus on market dispersion and macro flows.