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Andy Constan, Founder / Strategist at Damped Spring Macro, assesses a possible shift at the U.S. central bank. He suggests that with Warsh's likely confirmation and an assumed resignation by Powell, Warsh would vote for an interest rate cut in June. Constan adds that with the support of Waller, Williams, Miran or someone similar, along with Bowman, there would be five votes in favor of a cut. According to Constan, only two additional centrists would need to join for the rate cut to be approved.
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Constan has previously highlighted a divide among investors, with aggressive buyers stepping in as price followers turned to short positions in recent market sentiment. He also reported a net 0.6 percent loss related to bearish equity and CLZ6 trades, while noting Smart Beta strategies gained 1.1 percent in the same period. These observations provide additional context to his views on potential changes at the Federal Reserve.