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Michael Kantro: Risk sentiment outweighs earnings growth in index performance

Michael Kantro: Risk sentiment outweighs earnings growth in index performance
Risk premium outweighs earnings growth

Michael Kantro, industry influencer, argues that changes in risk premium, reflecting broader macro risk sentiment, have a greater impact on index performance than changes in expected EPS growth.

He explains that while both risk sentiment and earnings growth are important, the most notable market years—both best and worst—are often driven more by shifts in valuations than by underlying earnings.

Kantro has recently commented on how asset allocation decisions can benefit from prioritizing relative earnings over relative valuation for investors, as detailed in his recommendation to focus on earnings. In an earlier recap, he described a Florida dinner where market bulls and bears exchanged views on the outlook for equities and risks over a meal, as summarized in his account of the debate. Both discussions inform his ongoing analysis of market drivers.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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