Technical Analysis and Market Strategy by Michael Kantro
AI basket is overweight beta and growth, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro said that the performance of AI winners and losers closely resembles the sector-neutral Beta long/short factor portfolio. He added that the AI basket is characterized by overweight ...
Michael Kantro: Stocks tend to outperform when positive surprises boost expectations
Michael Kantro wrote that stocks generally perform best when positive surprises drive increases in expectations. He added that, in broad terms, riskier stocks often lead during upward moves and ...
Markets move most during economic upswings, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro said that instead of focusing on S&P 500 targets or making sector calls, he prefers to focus on fundamental attributes to create investment baskets and recommend positioning. He ...
Michael Kantro: Best returns often coincide with rising expectations and risk-on leadership
Michael Kantro said that the best returns, coupled with the most risk-on leadership—characterized by higher beta and lower quality—usually take place during periods when expectations are ...
Earns top honor in portfolio strategy for 2026, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro was voted number one in Portfolio Strategy in the 2026 Extel (Institutional Investor) Americas Research Survey, marking the third consecutive year receiving this distinction. ...
Michael Kantro: To discuss macro and market outlook on CNBC
Michael Kantro announced that he will be appearing on CNBC around 1 p.m. ET to share his latest views on the macro environment and market ...
High-beta tech stock rallies often come before economic and earnings growth peaks, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro observed that periods of strong gains in high-beta technology stocks tend to coincide with rebounds and broadening in macroeconomic and earnings-per-share (EPS) measures. He noted ...
Michael Kantro: Advises clients to avoid higher-beta stocks in current environment
Michael Kantro said that he has been advising clients to avoid higher-beta stocks for the past few months. He stated that the best returns in such stocks, as well as in those considered ...
S&P 500 Macro Select index rises nearly 30% year to date, Michael Kantro notes
The S&P 500 Macro Select stock index is up approximately 30% so far this year, outperforming both the capitalization-weighted and equal-weighted versions of the index. Michael Kantro highlighted ...
Michael Kantro: Corporate margins continue to rise as cyclical and secular forces play out
Corporate margins are continuing to rise sharply, driven by a combination of cyclical and secular factors. Michael Kantro observed that not only are realized numbers increasing, but ...
Humor plays a key role in investing, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro asks for good pair trade ideas, emphasizing that humor is a key element in the investment process. The tweet suggests that staying lighthearted can be important, even when ...
Michael Kantro: Macro research focuses on future investor priorities
Michael Kantro highlights that the core of macro and market research is forecasting which investment attributes—such as beta, growth, value, margins, and leverage—are likely to attract ...
Strategy product delivers sector-neutral outperformance this year, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro describes a unique approach with the Strategy product, emphasizing a sector-neutral stance rather than market or sector calls. Instead, macro and market views are translated into ...
Michael Kantro: Wealth-weighted indexes drive economic disconnect in markets
Michael Kantro addresses how different market indexes, specifically wealth-weighted versus equal-weighted, influence economic perspectives. He suggests that adjustments to the wealth-weighted ...
SPX price may not support current levels without earnings growth, Michael Kantro warns
Michael Kantro raises concerns about the sustainability of recent market moves. He points out that multiple indicators, including breadth and P/E ratios, do not align with continued optimism for ...
Michael Kantro: Economic strength concentrated among largest companies and oldest consumers
Michael Kantro observes that both corporate and consumer economic strength is largely determined by the biggest companies and the wealthiest, oldest consumers. This concentration, according to ...
Perceptions of low mortgage rates have fallen to near 3rd percentile, Michael Kantro notes
Michael Kantro observes that markets often react based on behavioral tendencies such as recency bias. According to Kantro, consumers who describe mortgage rates as low are now at about the 3rd ...
Michael Kantro: S&P 500 P/Es have compressed by over 3 points since Q4/25
Michael Kantro observes that equities are already reflecting higher interest rates, as evidenced by a compression of over 3 points in S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratios since Q4/25. He attributes ...
Treasury announces surprise buyback affecting bond market direction, Michael Kantro examines
Michael Kantro discusses the recent announcement from the U.S. Treasury regarding an unexpected buyback program and its implications. The conversation, featuring Don Schneider, explores what this ...
Michael Kantro: Valuations are moving on market forces, not timing levels
Michael Kantro highlights that valuation should not be relied upon as a timing tool in markets. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying forces behind rising or falling ...
SPX could reach 8100 based on 20x multiple on 2027 EPS, Michael Kantro estimates
Michael Kantro predicts that applying a 20x price-to-earnings ratio to 2027 estimated EPS of $405 results in a year-end SPX target of 8100. He adds that potential Federal Reserve rate hikes ...
