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Jurrien Timmer: Market tests incoming Fed Chair Warsh as rate expectations shift
Jurrien Timmer highlights that the SOFR curve is now reflecting expectations of a rate hike, a notable shift from the previously anticipated three rate cuts earlier this year.
Timmer observes that this change comes as the market prepares to test incoming Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, a scenario that often plays out during leadership transitions. He raises the question whether Warsh will push for rate cuts or, at a minimum, avoid raising rates amidst shifting policy expectations.
Earlier this year, Timmer noted that persistent 3% inflation has kept U.S. short-term rates elevated, with the bond market resisting rate cuts as a result. In a separate analysis, he observed that rising correlation between stocks and bonds has boosted the role of diversifiers such as commodities and managed futures. The latest signals in the SOFR curve follow a series of shifting rate expectations documented in his recent commentary.
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