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E.J. Antoni reports that the Dallas Federal Reserve's trimmed mean PCE inflation rate stood at 2.3% year-over-year in April, representing a slight decrease from 2.4% in March.
The data also shows the 6-month annualized inflation rate rising to 2.3%, while the 1-month annualized rate declined to 2.5% after a previous spike in March.
Antoni previously reported that markets expected higher oil prices to drive inflation rather than a recession, according to recent investor sentiment. In May, he also noted that contraction in the U.S. service sector eased as capital expenditures and jobs increased, but inflation and supply chain problems persisted, as detailed in his service sector update. These earlier reports provide context for the latest inflation data.