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Skanda Amarnath expects that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in July.
He notes that while some Fed officials appear open to a hike as early as September, his base-case expectation remains October.
Amarnath has recently highlighted a shift in temporary help service jobs from contraction to growth, supporting the rebound in overall job growth. Earlier, he called a new PPI release “brutal,” citing a 3.5 percent core PCE and worsening headline inflation. These recent observations inform his outlook for Federal Reserve policy.