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Sector under 20 percent of GDP drives downturns, Eric Basmajian underscores

Sector under 20 percent of GDP drives downturns, Eric Basmajian underscores
Downturns start in narrow slice of GDP

Eric Basmajian urges readers not to focus solely on headline economic numbers, but instead to watch the segment of the economy that drives actual movement.

He states this sector represents less than 20 percent of U.S. GDP and is where every downturn begins. Basmajian has mapped this analysis in a free PDF for those interested in deeper insights.

Basmajian recently observed that the economy performed better than current conditions 80 percent of the time in historical periods, according to recent commentary. He also reported that residential building payrolls have declined just 2.5% from their peak, a smaller drop compared to pre-recession figures in past cycles, as detailed in another update. These data points provide further context for his focus on specific economic sectors.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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